Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Wednesday, September 23, 2026
Top rbis spot: Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Max Scherzer. The righty is driving in runs at .173 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .275 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 18% of his trips. And Max Scherzer has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .000 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .160 in 25 career PA against Max Scherzer, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Cole Carrigg (COL) (98) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .130 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (92) vs RHP George Kirby: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182), hot bat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (91) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: an excellent bat at .151 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.069).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (90) vs RHP Mason Adams: a strong bat at .126 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (90) vs RHP Logan Henderson: an elite bat at .164 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Garrett Mitchell (MIL) (88) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .131 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.022).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (87) vs RHP the starter: an excellent bat at .160 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Cole Carrigg (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .132 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .150 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .120 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year.
Best parks to drive in runs today
- Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+18% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Cole Carrigg (COL) at 98.
- PNC Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Leo Bernal (STL) at 82.
- Oracle Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Bo Davidson (SF) at 79.
- UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Teoscar Hernández (LAD) at 77.
Lineup watch
288 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays