Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Saturday, September 26, 2026
Top rbis spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jack Perkins. The lefty is driving in runs at .154 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .188 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 14% of his trips. And Jack Perkins has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .000 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Jack Perkins, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Alejandro Kirk (TOR) (86) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: an excellent bat at .149 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.429).
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) (83) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: an excellent bat at .142 into an arm giving up runs to the same side (.118).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (83) vs LHP Jose Quintana: a strong bat at .134 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (83) vs LHP Matt Wilkinson: a strong bat at .133 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hitter's park.
- James Wood (WSH) (82) vs RHP Jonah Tong: a strong bat at .123 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.107).
- Brady House (WSH) (82) vs RHP Jonah Tong: a strong bat at .124 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.111).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (81) vs RHP Griffin Jax: an elite bat at .163 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.035).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .150 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .128 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .141 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year.
Best parks to drive in runs today
- Oracle Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) at 83.
- Petco Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Gabriel Moreno (AZ) at 74.
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays