Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Saturday, October 3, 2026
Top rbis spot: Ben Rice
Ben Rice (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Drew Rasmussen. The lefty is driving in runs at .148 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .091 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a RBI in about 13% of his trips. And Drew Rasmussen has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .063 in 16 career PA against Drew Rasmussen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Matt Olson (ATL) (88) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: a strong bat at .130 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) (85) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: an excellent bat at .144 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (83) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: a solid bat at .115 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (82) vs LHP Parker Messick: a strong bat at .130 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Spencer Jones (NYY) (80) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: a solid bat at .113 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (79) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: a solid bat at .109 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Manny Machado (SD) (78) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: an excellent bat at .140 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
- Spencer Jones (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .117 against righties this year.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .125 against righties this year.
- Cody Bellinger (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year.
Best parks to drive in runs today
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Matt Olson (ATL) at 88.
Lineup watch
72 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays