Who has the best runs matchup today (Monday, May 25, 2026)?

Willy Adames (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Monday, May 25, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Monday, May 25, 2026: Willy Adames (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Jake McCarthy (100), Spencer Horwitz (96), Pete Crow-Armstrong (96). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Did the top runs matchup get a run on Monday, May 25, 2026?

Yes — Willy Adames got 1 run.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.

What are park factors?

A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Monday, May 25, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, May 25, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, May 25, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ run, against 44% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 44%

Top 10

5/1050%

season 46%

Full slate

82/23435%

season 30%

Top call Willy Adames came through. Jake McCarthy didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 7–9

TBaway

BALhomeTop matchup96 Final · 1–2

CHCaway

PIThomeTop matchup96 Final · 1–3

MINaway

CWShomeTop matchup96 Final · 1–5

STLaway

MILhomeTop matchup75 Final · 4–3

NYYaway

KChomeTop matchup83 Final · 7–2

CINaway

NYMhomeTop matchup92 Final · 6–2

AZaway

SFhomeTop matchup100 Final · 10–2

WSHaway

CLEhomeTop matchup75 Final · 3–0

PHIaway

SDhomeTop matchup87 Final · 9–0

HOUaway

TEXhomeTop matchup83 Final · 8–2

MIAaway

TORhomeTop matchup96 Final · 3–5

COLaway

LADhomeTop matchup100 Final · 9–2

SEAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup83

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

82 with a RLive count — updates as games play

1
Liam HicksC
MIA@TOR· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #22
T1
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@SD· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #41
T1
James WoodRF
WSH@CLE· 4-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #51
T1
Luis García Jr.1B
WSH@CLE· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #74
T1
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@ATH· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #80
T1
Oliver Dunn3B
TB@BAL· 0-for-1
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #89
T1
Curtis Mead3B
WSH@CLE· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #102
T1
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsNYY· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #103
T1
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@ATH· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #108
T1
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@NYM· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #110
T1
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsTB· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #132
T1
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@SF· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #140
T1
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@TOR· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #147
T1
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsTB· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #150
T1
Hyeseong KimSS
LADvsCOL· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #167
T1
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@CLE· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #198
T1
Colton CowserCF
BALvsTB· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #214
18
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsAZ· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #1
T18
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsCOL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #2
T18
Spencer Horwitz1B
PITvsCHC· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #4
T18
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@TOR· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #8
T18
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@SF· 4-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #9
T18
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@BAL· 3-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #12
T18
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@CWS· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #20
T18
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@ATH· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #28
T18
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsAZ· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #31
T18
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsCOL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #36
T18
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWSvsMIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #39
T18
Michael Busch1B
CHC@PIT· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #43
T18
Adley RutschmanC
BALvsTB· 0-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #44
T18
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsSTL· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #48
T18
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsNYY· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #52
T18
JJ BledayLF
CIN@NYM· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #59
T18
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@SF· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #60
T18
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@BAL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #62
T18
Otto LopezSS
MIA@TOR· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #65
T18
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsTB· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #68
T18
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@TOR· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #70
T18
Brice Turang2B
MILvsSTL· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #71
T18
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@TEX· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #78
T18
Shea LangeliersC
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #79
T18
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #83
T18
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsCIN· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #84
T18
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@NYM· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #85
T18
Troy JohnstonRF
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #88
T18
Jeremiah Jackson2B
BALvsTB· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #96
T18
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@TOR· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #98
T18
William ContrerasC
MILvsSTL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #99
T18
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@KC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #104
T18
Christian Walker1B
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #106
T18
Richie Palacios2B
TB@BAL· 2-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #112
T18
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@SD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #115
T18
Christian YelichDH
MILvsSTL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #120
T18
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #122
T18
Max SchuemannLF
NYY@KC
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #125
T18
Jake MeyersCF
HOU@TEX· 0-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #127
T18
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #128
T18
Luke RaleyRF
SEA@ATH· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #129
T18
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsSTL· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #136
T18
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLEvsWSH· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #138
T18
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #141
T18
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsMIA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #146
T18
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@KC· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #155
T18
Cam SmithRF
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #157
T18
Cole Young2B
SEA@ATH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #159
T18
Spencer Steer1B
CIN@NYM· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #161
T18
Will SmithC
LADvsCOL· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #163
T18
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@LAD· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #164
T18
Jose FernandezDH
AZ@SF· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #166
T18
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TB@BAL· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #168
T18
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsMIN· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #169
T18
Daylen LileLF
WSH@CLE· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #177
T18
Anthony VolpeSS
NYY@KC· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #182
T18
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@ATH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #186
T18
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #187
T18
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@NYM· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #188
T18
Drew RomoC
CWSvsMIN· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #191
T18
Henry DavisC
PITvsCHC· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #199
T18
Nick AllenSS
HOU@TEX· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #205
T18
Lenyn Sosa2B
TORvsMIA· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #219
T18
Christian VázquezC
HOU@TEX· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #228
T18
Colt EmersonSS
SEA@ATH· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #230

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, May 25, 2026

Willy Adames (SF) is the top runs matchup on the Monday, May 25, 2026 board at 100, with Shohei Ohtani (LAD) and Jake McCarthy (COL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Willy Adames

Willy Adames (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The righty is scoring at — R/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .281 in 32 career PA against Merrill Kelly. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Jake McCarthy (COL) (100) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (96) vs RHP Ben Brown: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (96) vs RHP Carmen Mlodzinski: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Taylor Ward (BAL) (96) vs LHP Shane McClanahan: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Byron Buxton (MIN) (96) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Xavier Edwards (MIA) (96) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.

How it played out

5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Willy Adames finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Monday, May 25, 2026)?: Willy Adames (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Monday, May 25, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Monday, May 25, 2026: Willy Adames (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Jake McCarthy (100), Spencer Horwitz (96), Pete Crow-Armstrong (96). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Did the top runs matchup get a run on Monday, May 25, 2026?: Yes — Willy Adames got 1 run.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.
What are park factors?: A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.