Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, May 25, 2026
Top runs spot: Willy Adames
Willy Adames (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The righty is scoring at — R/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .281 in 32 career PA against Merrill Kelly. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (100) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (96) vs RHP Ben Brown: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (96) vs RHP Carmen Mlodzinski: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Taylor Ward (BAL) (96) vs LHP Shane McClanahan: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (96) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) (96) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Willy Adames finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.