Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, July 19, 2026
Top runs spot: Curtis Mead
Curtis Mead (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Jacob Lopez. The righty is scoring at .164 R/PA against lefties this year — and .214 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Jacob Lopez has been getting lit up by lefties lately — .375 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Jacob Lopez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Matt Vierling (DET) (97) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a league-average bat at .104 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.462).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (95) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: a strong bat at .131 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (94) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
- Andrés Chaparro (WSH) (93) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: a solid bat at .125 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.375).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (90) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Heriberto Hernández (MIA) (90) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a solid bat at .124 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
- Matt Olson (ATL) (89) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: a strong bat at .142 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
Platoon edges to target
- Curtis Mead (WSH) — righty bat vs LHP, .164 against lefties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .157 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year.
- Andrés Chaparro (WSH) — righty bat vs LHP, .172 against lefties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
279 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.