Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, July 19, 2026
Top runs spot: Andy Pages
Andy Pages (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Ryan Yarbrough. The righty is scoring at .143 R/PA against lefties this year — and .231 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Ryan Yarbrough has been mostly holding up against lefties lately — .111 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Ryan Yarbrough too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Curtis Mead (WSH) (100) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: a solid bat at .129 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.375).
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (97) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a solid bat at .119 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.462).
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (96) vs RHP Will Klein: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.286), due to bounce back.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (95) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: a strong bat at .131 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (94) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
- Andrés Chaparro (WSH) (93) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: a solid bat at .125 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.375).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (92) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .133 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.080).
Platoon edges to target
- Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .143 against lefties this year.
- Curtis Mead (WSH) — righty bat vs LHP, .164 against lefties this year.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .157 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Andy Pages finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays