Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, July 26, 2026
Top runs spot: Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is scoring at .128 R/PA against lefties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been getting lit up by lefties lately — .276 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Kyle Freeland too — .500 across 12 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (93) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a strong bat at .138 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.095).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (93) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: a solid bat at .126 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (90) vs RHP Ronel Blanco: a strong bat at .143 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.267).
- William Contreras (MIL) (89) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .119 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.276).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (89) vs RHP Ronel Blanco: a strong bat at .149 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.267).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (86) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a strong bat at .136 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.290).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (84) vs RHP Shane Baz: a strong bat at .148 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.107).
Platoon edges to target
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .128 against lefties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .141 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .176 against righties this year.
- William Contreras (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .132 against lefties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .197 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.