Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, July 26, 2026
Top runs spot: Zach Neto
Zach Neto (LAA) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Carson Whisenhunt. The righty is scoring at .149 R/PA against lefties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Carson Whisenhunt has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Carson Whisenhunt. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Trea Turner (PHI) (100) vs RHP Will Warren: a strong bat at .131 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .120 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.276).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (94) vs LHP Carson Whisenhunt: a solid bat at .124 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (92) vs RHP José Soriano: a league-average bat at .112 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.080).
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) (90) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .121 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.276).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (87) vs RHP José Soriano: a strong bat at .134 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.080).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (86) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a strong bat at .145 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.290).
Platoon edges to target
- Zach Neto (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .149 against lefties this year.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .128 against lefties this year.
- Mike Trout (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .155 against lefties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .122 against righties this year.
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .173 against lefties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Zach Neto finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays