Who has the best runs matchup today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Thursday, August 6, 2026: Kyle Schwarber (100), Carter Jensen (100), Dylan Beavers (100), Gabriel Moreno (100), Gunnar Henderson (99). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Did the top runs matchup get a run on Thursday, August 6, 2026?

No — Kyle Schwarber didn't record a run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .134 against righties this year. Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .122 against righties this year. Dylan Beavers (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .106 against righties this year. Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .181 against righties this year.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Thursday, August 6, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, August 6, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Thursday, August 6, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on 1+ run, against 46% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 46%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 48%

Full slate

82/19841%

season 38%

Top call Carter Jensen came through. Kyle Schwarber didn't.

Final · 4–1

LAAaway

BALhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–6

ATHaway

CINhomeTop matchup89 Final · 13–6

NYMaway

CLEhomeTop matchup69 Final · 2–5

PITaway

MILhomeTop matchup76 Final · 2–3

TORaway

CHChomeTop matchup68 Final · 11–0

DETaway

SEAhomeTop matchup84 Final · 3–7

WSHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100 Final · 11–12

CWSaway

BOShomeTop matchup91 Final · 3–11

MIAaway

ATLhomeTop matchup92 Final · 4–3

MINaway

KChomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–1

SDaway

AZhomeTop matchup100

Not starting53 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 251 shownScore

87 with a RLive count — updates as games play

1
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsMIA· 2-for-3
3RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #11
T1
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@SEA· 2-for-3
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #24
T1
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsMIA· 3-for-5
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #42
4
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsWSH· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #7
T4
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsCWS· 1-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #9
T4
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsMIA· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #13
T4
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsATH· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #17
T4
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsCWS· 3-for-6
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #20
T4
Dillon DinglerC
DET@SEA· 3-for-6
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #22
T4
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsMIN· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #29
T4
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@AZ· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #31
T4
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsTOR· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #40
T4
Carson BengeRF
NYM@CLE· 3-for-6
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #41
T4
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsNYM· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #43
T4
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsNYM· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #60
T4
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@BOS· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #66
T4
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@BAL· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #72
T4
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsWSH· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #75
T4
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYM@CLE· 3-for-6
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #82
T4
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@BOS· 0-for-6
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #105
T4
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@CLE· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #120
T4
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@CLE· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #146
T4
Luis TorrensC
NYM@CLE· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #176
T4
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@BOS· 1-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #192
25
Carter JensenC
KCvsMIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #2
T25
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsWSH· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #6
T25
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsMIA· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #8
T25
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsATH· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #10
T25
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsSD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #14
T25
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsCWS· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #15
T25
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@SEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #16
T25
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@KC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #23
T25
JJ BledayLF
CINvsATH· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #25
T25
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsPIT· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #28
T25
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #36
T25
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsATH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #44
T25
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@MIL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #45
T25
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsWSH· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #46
T25
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@CHC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #47
T25
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@AZ· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #49
T25
Zach NetoSS
LAA@BAL· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #50
T25
Henry BolteCF
ATH@CIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #52
T25
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsPIT· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #55
T25
Riley GreeneLF
DET@SEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #56
T25
Manny Machado3B
SD@AZ· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #58
T25
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@CLE· 2-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #59
T25
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsMIA· 4-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #62
T25
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@MIL· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #64
T25
Tommy White3B
ATH@CIN· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #65
T25
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@SEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #71
T25
Nathaniel LoweDH
CLEvsNYM· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #83
T25
Jonah HeimC
ATH@CIN· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #84
T25
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #88
T25
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsCWS· 0-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #92
T25
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsWSH· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #94
T25
Gary SánchezC
MILvsPIT· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #103
T25
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsTOR· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #109
T25
Colt Keith3B
DET@SEA· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #111
T25
Anthony Seigler2B
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #115
T25
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@KC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #122
T25
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@BOS· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #125
T25
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@BAL· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #128
T25
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@ATL· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #133
T25
Randal GrichukDH
CWS@BOS· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #134
T25
Matt McLain2B
CINvsATH· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #137
T25
Cooper PrattSS
MILvsPIT· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #140
T25
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@CIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #144
T25
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@PHI· 2-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #147
T25
Yohel PozoC
BALvsLAA· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #150
T25
Harry FordC
WSH@PHI· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #153
T25
Andrew PinckneyLF
WSH@PHI· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #154
T25
Leo Jiménez3B
MIA@ATL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #156
T25
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@AZ· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #161
T25
Angel Genao3B
CLEvsNYM· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #163
T25
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@ATL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #165
T25
Brian ServenC
ATH@CIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #167
T25
Brenton DoyleCF
CWS@BOS· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #168
T25
Connor WongC
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #169
T25
Eric Wagaman1B
NYM@CLE· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #170
T25
David Hamilton3B
MILvsPIT· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #174
T25
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@SEA· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #178
T25
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@CHC· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #186
T25
Ryan JeffersC
MIN@KC· 0-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T25
Jared Young1B
NYM@CLE· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T25
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@BOS· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T25
Lane ThomasCF
ATLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T25
Drew RomoC
CWS@BOS· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, August 6, 2026

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) is the top runs matchup on the Thursday, August 6, 2026 board at 100, with Carter Jensen (KC) and Dylan Beavers (BAL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. The lefty is scoring at .134 R/PA against righties this year — and .133 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Miles Mikolas has been getting lit up by righties lately — .161 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .171 in 35 career PA against Miles Mikolas, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Carter Jensen (KC) (100) vs RHP Bailey Ober: a solid bat at .122 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.189), due to bounce back.
Dylan Beavers (BAL) (100) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a league-average bat at .109 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.440), due to bounce back.
Gabriel Moreno (AZ) (100) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a solid bat at .124 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.210), due to bounce back.
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (99) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a solid bat at .125 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.440).
Trea Turner (PHI) (98) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
Bryce Harper (PHI) (96) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a strong bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.161), due to bounce back.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) (92) vs RHP Janson Junk: a solid bat at .129 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.040).

Platoon edges to target

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .134 against righties this year.
Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .122 against righties this year.
Dylan Beavers (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .106 against righties this year.
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .181 against righties this year.

How it played out

6 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Kyle Schwarber finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Thursday, August 6, 2026: Kyle Schwarber (100), Carter Jensen (100), Dylan Beavers (100), Gabriel Moreno (100), Gunnar Henderson (99). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Did the top runs matchup get a run on Thursday, August 6, 2026?: No — Kyle Schwarber didn't record a run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .134 against righties this year. Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .122 against righties this year. Dylan Beavers (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .106 against righties this year. Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .181 against righties this year.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays