Who has the best runs matchup today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?

Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Thursday, August 6, 2026: Gunnar Henderson (100), Kyle Schwarber (92), Trea Turner (88), Bryce Harper (88), Zach Neto (85). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .183 against righties this year. Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .124 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .145 against righties this year.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Thursday, August 6, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, August 6, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

12:35 PM ET

LAAaway

BALhomeTop matchup100 12:40 PM ET

ATHaway

CINhomeTop matchup81 1:10 PM ET

NYMaway

CLEhomeTop matchup72 2:10 PM ET

PITaway

MILhomeTop matchup67 2:20 PM ET

TORaway

CHChomeTop matchup63 4:10 PM ET

DETaway

SEAhomeTop matchup71 6:05 PM ET

WSHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup92 7:10 PM ET

CWSaway

BOShomeTop matchup76 7:15 PM ET

MIAaway

ATLhomeTop matchup74 7:40 PM ET

MINaway

KChomeTop matchup83 9:40 PM ET

SDaway

AZhomeTop matchup69

PROJ180 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch

Not starting4 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 202 shownScore

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, August 6, 2026

Gunnar Henderson (BAL) is the top runs matchup on the Thursday, August 6, 2026 board at 100, with Kyle Schwarber (PHI) and Trea Turner (PHI) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Gunnar Henderson

Gunnar Henderson (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. The lefty is scoring at .136 R/PA against righties this year — and .063 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Ryan Johnson has been getting lit up by righties lately — .440 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Ryan Johnson, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (92) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a strong bat at .131 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.163), due to bounce back.
Trea Turner (PHI) (88) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a strong bat at .134 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.150).
Bryce Harper (PHI) (88) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a strong bat at .142 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.163), due to bounce back.
Zach Neto (LAA) (85) vs RHP Brandon Young: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
Christian Franklin (BAL) (85) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a solid bat at .117 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.118), due to bounce back.
Carter Jensen (KC) (83) vs RHP Bailey Ober: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.189), due to bounce back.
Pete Alonso (BAL) (83) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a solid bat at .123 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.118).

Platoon edges to target

Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .183 against righties this year.
Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .124 against righties this year.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .145 against righties this year.

Lineup watch

180 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?: Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Thursday, August 6, 2026: Gunnar Henderson (100), Kyle Schwarber (92), Trea Turner (88), Bryce Harper (88), Zach Neto (85). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .183 against righties this year. Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .124 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .145 against righties this year.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a run.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays