Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, August 6, 2026
Top runs spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. The lefty is scoring at .134 R/PA against righties this year — and .133 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Miles Mikolas has been getting lit up by righties lately — .161 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .171 in 35 career PA against Miles Mikolas, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Carter Jensen (KC) (100) vs RHP Bailey Ober: a solid bat at .122 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.189), due to bounce back.
- Dylan Beavers (BAL) (100) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a league-average bat at .109 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.440), due to bounce back.
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) (100) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a solid bat at .124 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.210), due to bounce back.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (99) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a solid bat at .125 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.440).
- Trea Turner (PHI) (98) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (96) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a strong bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.161), due to bounce back.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (92) vs RHP Janson Junk: a solid bat at .129 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.040).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .134 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .122 against righties this year.
- Dylan Beavers (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .106 against righties this year.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .181 against righties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Kyle Schwarber finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays