Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, August 15, 2026
Top runs spot: Drew Gilbert
Drew Gilbert (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is scoring at .120 R/PA against righties this year — and .188 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been getting lit up by righties lately — .240 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael Lorenzen too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs RHP Jared Jones: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.588).
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (100) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: a solid bat at .121 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200), due to bounce back.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (99) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.240).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (92) vs LHP Joey Cantillo: a strong bat at .143 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (91) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: a solid bat at .119 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.111).
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (88) vs LHP Reid Detmers: a strong bat at .132 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.129).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (87) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .142 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.214).
Platoon edges to target
- Drew Gilbert (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .120 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .137 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .164 against lefties this year.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .158 against lefties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Drew Gilbert finished with 2 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays