Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, August 16, 2026
Top runs spot: Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen (KC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. The lefty is scoring at .132 R/PA against righties this year — and .250 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Ryan Johnson has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .048 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Johnson. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (100) vs RHP Bryan Woo: a strong bat at .142 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) (99) vs RHP Jake Irvin: a strong bat at .138 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.191).
- Wyatt Langford (TEX) (99) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: a strong bat at .137 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Drew Gilbert (SF) (97) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a solid bat at .125 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (95) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: a strong bat at .144 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (93) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a strong bat at .130 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (92) vs RHP Dean Kremer: a strong bat at .132 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.040).
Platoon edges to target
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .132 against righties this year.
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .137 against righties this year.
- Wyatt Langford (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .176 against lefties this year.
- Drew Gilbert (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .122 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .176 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Carter Jensen finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays