Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, September 3, 2026
Top runs spot: Randy Arozarena
Randy Arozarena (SEA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jack Perkins. The righty is scoring at .160 R/PA against righties this year — and .163 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Jack Perkins has been letting runs score against righties lately — .120 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Jack Perkins too — .500 across 4 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) (100) vs LHP Quinn Mathews: a solid bat at .128 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.222).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (99) vs RHP Luis Castillo: an excellent bat at .160 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.176).
- Tommy Edman (LAD) (89) vs LHP Quinn Mathews: a league-average bat at .110 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.222).
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (85) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a strong bat at .136 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182), hot bat.
- Mookie Betts (LAD) (83) vs LHP Quinn Mathews: a league-average bat at .111 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.222), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (82) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a strong bat at .147 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.238).
- Jordan Walker (STL) (80) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: a strong bat at .146 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.024).
Platoon edges to target
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .148 against lefties this year.
- Tommy Edman (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .079 against lefties this year.
- Mookie Betts (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .102 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
- Jordan Walker (STL) — righty bat vs LHP, .182 against lefties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Randy Arozarena finished with 2 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays