Who has the best runs matchup today (Wednesday, September 2, 2026)?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Brycen Mautz. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Wednesday, September 2, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Wednesday, September 2, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Paul Goldschmidt (100), Jeremy Peña (100), Rafael Devers (95), Kevin McGonigle (92). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Did the top runs matchup get a run on Wednesday, September 2, 2026?

Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 1 run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .142 against lefties this year. Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year. Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .158 against righties this year. Jackson Holliday (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .135 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .181 against righties this year.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.

What are park factors?

A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Wednesday, September 2, 2026

Every hitter on the Wednesday, September 2, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, September 2, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ run, against 48% on the season.

Top call Shohei Ohtani came through. Paul Goldschmidt didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 3–7

SDaway

CINhomeTop matchup74 Final · 9–0

ATLaway

WSHhomeTop matchup76 Final · 9–2

ATHaway

TEXhomeTop matchup73 Final · 5–6

BALaway

COLhomeTop matchup85 Final · 0–1

PHIaway

AZhomeTop matchup84 Final · 8–3

SEAaway

BOShomeTop matchup60 Final · 10–4

NYMaway

TBhomeTop matchup68 Final · 5–4

SFaway

PIThomeTop matchup95 Final · 11–0

TORaway

CLEhomeTop matchup60 Final · 9–5

MILaway

CHChomeTop matchup79 Final · 11–6

DETaway

MINhomeTop matchup92 Final · 9–6

MIAaway

KChomeTop matchup73 Final · 0–2

CWSaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–3

NYYaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 8–6

STLaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

Not starting61 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 331 shownScore

119 with a RLive count — updates as games play

1
Brett BatemanCF
TOR@CLE· 1-for-4
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #132
T1
Max ClarkCF
DET@MIN· 3-for-4
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #154
3
Rafael Devers1B
SF@PIT· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #4
T3
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@CHC· 4-for-6
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #15
T3
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsSTL· 1-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #22
T3
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@LAA· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #25
T3
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsSF· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #34
T3
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@MIN· 1-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #46
T3
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #58
T3
Carter JensenC
KCvsMIA· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #76
T3
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATL@WSH· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #85
T3
Henry BolteCF
ATH@TEX· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #95
T3
Carson BengeRF
NYM@TB· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #99
T3
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@KC· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #100
T3
Kody Clemens2B
MINvsDET· 0-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #114
T3
Adael Amador2B
COLvsBAL· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #124
T3
Jared Young1B
NYM@TB· 1-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #139
T3
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@TB· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #146
T3
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@TEX· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #169
T3
Sean MurphyC
ATL@WSH· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #170
T3
JJ BledayLF
CINvsSD· 3-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #188
T3
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@KC· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #207
T3
Weston Wilson3B
SEA@BOS· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #226
T3
Thomas SaggeseLF
STL@LAD· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #231
T3
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@TB· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #239
T3
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@BOS· 3-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #241
T3
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@LAD· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #251
T3
Myles StrawCF
TOR@CLE· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #257
T3
Christian Koss3B
SF@PIT· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #263
T3
Christian YelichDH
MIL@CHC· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
31
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsSTL· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #1
T31
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@MIN· 0-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #5
T31
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@COL· 2-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #6
T31
Drew GilbertCF
SF@PIT· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #10
T31
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@WSH· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #17
T31
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@CIN· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #20
T31
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsSTL· 2-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #21
T31
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsMIA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #24
T31
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@COL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #29
T31
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@LAD· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #30
T31
Juan SotoLF
NYM@TB· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #43
T31
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsBAL· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #45
T31
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsATH· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #47
T31
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsBAL· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #48
T31
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@WSH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #57
T31
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@CLE· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #63
T31
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsSTL· 2-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #64
T31
Roman AnthonyLF
BOSvsSEA· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #65
T31
Mickey GasperDH
BOSvsSEA· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #66
T31
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@LAA· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #74
T31
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsCWS· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #75
T31
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsSD· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #77
T31
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@CHC· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #78
T31
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@KC· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #79
T31
Brice Turang2B
MIL@CHC· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #81
T31
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsDET· 3-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #82
T31
William ContrerasC
MIL@CHC· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #84
T31
Spencer Horwitz1B
PITvsSF· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #86
T31
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsNYY· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #88
T31
José CaballeroSS
NYY@LAA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #89
T31
Zack Gelof3B
ATH@TEX· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #92
T31
Ryan JeffersC
MINvsDET· 1-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #93
T31
Connor Norby2B
COLvsBAL· 0-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #94
T31
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsMIA· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #101
T31
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@WSH· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #104
T31
Eduardo ValenciaDH
DET@MIN· 2-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #107
T31
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsNYM· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #111
T31
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #118
T31
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsNYM· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #119
T31
Héctor RodríguezRF
CINvsSD· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #125
T31
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsSEA· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #127
T31
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsMIL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #128
T31
Otto LopezSS
MIA@KC· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #131
T31
Luis Robert Jr.CF
BAL@COL· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #134
T31
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsATH· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #136
T31
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsNYM· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #140
T31
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@KC· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #141
T31
Blaze Alexander3B
BAL@COL· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #143
T31
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@BOS· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #147
T31
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsNYM· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #148
T31
George SpringerDH
TOR@CLE· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #151
T31
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsNYY· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #152
T31
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@BOS· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #156
T31
Ty France1B
SD@CIN· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #157
T31
Luis LaraRF
MIL@CHC· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #159
T31
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@WSH· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #168
T31
Rafael Flores Jr.C
PITvsSF· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #171
T31
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsSD· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #172
T31
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@LAA· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #175
T31
John PeckSS
DET@MIN· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #178
T31
Kaelen CulpepperSS
MINvsDET· 0-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #179
T31
Dane MyersCF
CINvsSD· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #181
T31
Austin HaysLF
SD@CIN· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #182
T31
Leo BernalC
STL@LAD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #183
T31
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsMIA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #184
T31
James McCannC
AZvsPHI· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #185
T31
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsMIA· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #186
T31
Jonah HeimC
ATH@TEX· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #189
T31
Matt ShawRF
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #196
T31
Tyrone TaylorLF
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #198
T31
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@TB· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #200
T31
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@CLE· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #202
T31
Jared SernaSS
MIA@KC· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #205
T31
Ha-Seong KimSS
ATL@WSH· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #219
T31
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsBAL· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #224
T31
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@CHC· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #225
T31
Cole Young2B
SEA@BOS· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #227
T31
Jhonny PeredaC
SEA@BOS· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #240
T31
Juan Brito2B
CINvsSD· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #243
T31
Brian ServenC
ATH@TEX· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #245
T31
Alika WilliamsSS
ATH@TEX· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #252
T31
Moisés BallesterosDH
LAAvsNYY· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #258
T31
Denzel ClarkeCF
ATH@TEX· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #259
T31
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@CLE· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #265
T31
José FermínLF
STL@LAD· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #269
T31
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@COL
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R
T31
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@KC· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T31
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@MIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T31
Austin WellsC
NYY@LAA· 2-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Wednesday, September 2, 2026

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the top runs matchup on the Wednesday, September 2, 2026 board at 100, with Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) and Jeremy Peña (HOU) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Brycen Mautz. The lefty is scoring at .140 R/PA against lefties this year — and .063 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Brycen Mautz has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Brycen Mautz. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (100) vs LHP Reid Detmers: a solid bat at .129 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.036).
Jeremy Peña (HOU) (100) vs RHP Davis Martin: an excellent bat at .162 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.571).
Rafael Devers (SF) (95) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .149 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182), hot bat.
Kevin McGonigle (DET) (92) vs RHP Dean Kremer: a strong bat at .145 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.320).
Jackson Holliday (BAL) (85) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
Iván Herrera (STL) (84) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: a strong bat at .131 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
Bryce Harper (PHI) (84) vs RHP Taylor Clarke: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.176).

Platoon edges to target

Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .142 against lefties this year.
Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .158 against righties this year.
Jackson Holliday (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .135 against righties this year.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .181 against righties this year.

How it played out

5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Wednesday, September 2, 2026)?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Brycen Mautz. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Wednesday, September 2, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Wednesday, September 2, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Paul Goldschmidt (100), Jeremy Peña (100), Rafael Devers (95), Kevin McGonigle (92). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Did the top runs matchup get a run on Wednesday, September 2, 2026?: Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 1 run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .142 against lefties this year. Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year. Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .158 against righties this year. Jackson Holliday (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .135 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .181 against righties this year.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.
What are park factors?: A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.