Best MLB Runs Matchups — Wednesday, September 2, 2026
Top runs spot: Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Davis Martin. The righty is scoring at .196 R/PA against righties this year — and .147 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Davis Martin has been getting lit up by righties lately — .571 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Davis Martin too — .333 across 9 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (92) vs RHP Dean Kremer: a strong bat at .145 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.320).
- Jackson Holliday (BAL) (85) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (83) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .136 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (83) vs RHP Taylor Clarke: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.176).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (82) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .149 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143), hot bat.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (82) vs RHP Hayden Wesneski: an excellent bat at .151 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.038), due to bounce back.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (81) vs RHP Hayden Wesneski: a strong bat at .144 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.038).
Platoon edges to target
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .158 against righties this year.
- Jackson Holliday (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .135 against righties this year.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .181 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays