Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, September 15, 2026
Top runs spot: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is scoring at .181 R/PA against lefties this year — and .182 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .212 in 33 career PA against Kyle Freeland. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (91) vs RHP Michael Wacha: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.080), due to bounce back.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (87) vs RHP Bailey Ober: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.063).
- Tommy Edman (LAD) (81) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.231), due to bounce back.
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (81) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .147 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (79) vs RHP Braydon Fisher: a strong bat at .148 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Coby Mayo (BAL) (79) vs LHP Sean Manaea: an excellent bat at .154 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.220), hot bat.
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) (77) vs RHP Shane Baz: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.146), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .181 against lefties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .170 against righties this year.
- Tommy Edman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
- Coby Mayo (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .205 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays