Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, September 25, 2026
Top runs spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brayan Bello. The lefty is scoring at .181 R/PA against righties this year — and .227 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Brayan Bello has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .040 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Brayan Bello too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (96) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .140 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) (89) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .142 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.296), hot bat.
- Jose Altuve (HOU) (83) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: a solid bat at .128 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.417).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (81) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .141 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (80) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an excellent bat at .151 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.043).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (79) vs RHP Yunior Marte: a strong bat at .145 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.048).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (78) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .147 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .181 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
- Jose Altuve (HOU) — righty bat vs LHP, .143 against lefties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .170 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
306 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays