Best MLB Singles Matchups — Thursday, July 30, 2026
Top singles spot: Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill (SD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Robbie Ray. The lefty is lining singles at .209 1B/PA against lefties this year — and .500 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a single in about 20% of his trips. And Robbie Ray has been getting picked apart by lefties lately — .538 singles per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 6 career PA against Robbie Ray, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Tommy Edman (LAD) (100) vs RHP Bryan Woo: an elite bat at .191 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.188).
- Jake Mangum (PIT) (100) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: an excellent bat at .188 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.231), hot bat.
- Jacob Wilson (ATH) (89) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an excellent bat at .180 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.294).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (86) vs RHP Javier Assad: an elite bat at .206 into an arm tough to string hits off the same side (.000).
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (83) vs RHP Bryan Woo: an excellent bat at .181 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.188), hot bat.
- Bo Bichette (NYM) (82) vs RHP Eury Pérez: an elite bat at .194 into an arm prone to base hits from the same side (.154), due to bounce back.
- Nick Gonzales (PIT) (81) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: an elite bat at .205 into an arm tough to string hits off the same side (.100), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Tommy Edman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .244 against righties this year.
- Jake Mangum (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .223 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .178 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .177 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jake Mangum (PIT), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Nick Gonzales (PIT), Drake Baldwin (ATL), Luis Arraez (SF), and Miguel Vargas (CWS). Cold but due to bounce back: Bo Bichette (NYM), Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL), Nasim Nuñez (WSH), Luis Rengifo (SD), and Anthony Seigler (BOS).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 singles matchups landed at least one single. Top play Jackson Merrill finished with 1 single. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these singles matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's singles per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.