Best MLB Singles Matchups — Friday, July 31, 2026
Top singles spot: Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bradgley Rodriguez. The lefty is lining singles at .225 1B/PA against righties this year — and .282 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a single in about 21% of his trips. And Bradgley Rodriguez has been getting picked apart by righties lately — .200 singles per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Bradgley Rodriguez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Miguel Rojas (LAD) (100) vs LHP Ranger Suarez: a solid bat at .155 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.300), due to bounce back.
- Josh Naylor (SEA) (98) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: an excellent bat at .174 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.182), hot bat.
- Cole Young (SEA) (97) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a solid bat at .146 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.182), hot bat.
- Andy Pages (LAD) (97) vs LHP Ranger Suarez: a solid bat at .145 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.300).
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (93) vs RHP Bryce Miller: a solid bat at .145 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.214), due to bounce back.
- Ryan Jeffers (MIN) (91) vs RHP Bryce Miller: a strong bat at .155 into an arm around league average against the same side (.143), hot bat.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) (89) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: an excellent bat at .181 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.214).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .225 against righties this year.
- Miguel Rojas (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .186 against lefties this year.
- Josh Naylor (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .176 against righties this year.
- Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .160 against righties this year.
- Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .120 against lefties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Josh Naylor (SEA), Cole Young (SEA), Ryan Jeffers (MIN), Jake Mangum (PIT), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), and Jeremy Peña (HOU). Cold but due to bounce back: Miguel Rojas (LAD), Trevor Larnach (MIN), Chandler Simpson (TB), Dylan Beavers (BAL), and Julio Rodríguez (SEA).
How it played out
2 of the top 10 singles matchups landed at least one single. Top play Luis Arraez finished with 1 single. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these singles matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's singles per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.