Best MLB Stolen Bases Matchups — Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Top stolen bases spot: David Hamilton
David Hamilton (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Paul Skenes. The lefty is running at .083 SB/PA against righties this year — and .095 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a stolen base in about 8% of his trips. He's hitting in a spot worth about 3.8 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Paul Skenes, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Chandler Simpson (TB) (92) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: an elite bat at .088, hot bat.
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) (82) vs RHP Andre Pallante: an elite bat at .071.
- Nasim Nuñez (WSH) (76) vs RHP Andrew Painter: an elite bat at .083.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (67) vs RHP Dean Kremer: an elite bat at .047.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (67) vs RHP Nick Martinez: a high-volume bat at .042.
- A.J. Ewing (NYM) (62) vs RHP Tanner Bibee: an elite bat at .046.
- Cooper Pratt (MIL) (61) vs RHP Paul Skenes: an elite bat at .049.
Platoon edges to target
- David Hamilton (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year.
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .091 against righties this year.
- Nasim Nuñez (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .111 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .047 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these stolen bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's stolen bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.