Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Saturday, May 30, 2026
Top total bases spot: Jake McCarthy
Jake McCarthy (COL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Adrian Houser. The lefty is racking up bases at — TB/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 37% of his trips. And Adrian Houser has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Adrian Houser too — .400 across 5 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Willy Adames (SF) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (92) vs RHP Adrian Houser: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (92) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (83) vs RHP Adrian Houser: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Casey Schmitt (SF) (83) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Lawrence Butler (ATH) (82) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (82) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Adrian Houser has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), TJ Rumfield (COL), and Hunter Goodman (COL).
- RHP Ryan Feltner has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Willy Adames (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
- LHP Ryan Weathers has been giving up bases to lefties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Lawrence Butler (ATH), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Shea Langeliers (ATH).
- RHP J.T. Ginn has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Trent Grisham (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Aaron Judge (NYY).
Best parks for total bases today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Jake McCarthy finished with 6 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.