Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Top total bases spot: Dillon Dingler
Dillon Dingler (DET) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Emerson Hancock. The righty is racking up bases at .507 TB/PA against righties this year — and .649 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 46% of his trips. And Emerson Hancock has been getting squared up by righties lately — .619 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Emerson Hancock too — 1.000 across 1 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Carter Jensen (KC) (100) vs RHP Joe Ryan: a solid bat at .394 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.788).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (100) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: an elite bat at .578 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.333), hot bat.
- Gleyber Torres (DET) (93) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: a solid bat at .397 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.619).
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) (92) vs RHP Grant Holmes: a strong bat at .447 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
- Jac Caglianone (KC) (92) vs RHP Joe Ryan: a solid bat at .400 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.788).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (89) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a strong bat at .441 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (89) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: a strong bat at .463 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Joe Ryan has been getting squared up by righties — .463 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Carter Jensen (KC), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Bobby Witt Jr. (KC).
- LHP Patrick Sandoval has been getting squared up by lefties — .421 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Munetaka Murakami (CWS), Colson Montgomery (CWS), and Chase Meidroth (CWS).
- RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been vulnerable to righties — .410 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Dylan Beavers (BAL), Pete Alonso (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
- LHP Sean Manaea has been vulnerable to lefties — .400 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Steven Kwan (CLE), Chase DeLauter (CLE), and Jo Adell (CLE).
Platoon edges to target
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .388 against righties this year.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .447 against righties this year.
- Jac Caglianone (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .425 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .445 against righties this year.
- Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .411 against righties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Dillon Dingler finished with 5 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.