Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, August 13, 2026)?

Byron Buxton (MIN) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, August 13, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Thursday, August 13, 2026: Byron Buxton (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Jackson Chourio (98), Trent Grisham (94), Luis García Jr. (90). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Thursday, August 13, 2026?

Yes — Byron Buxton got 2 total bases.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .360 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .560 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .380 against righties this year. CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .503 against righties this year. Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .386 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Davis Martin has been getting squared up by righties — .423 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN). RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .419 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Byron Buxton (MIN), Ryan Jeffers (MIN), and Royce Lewis (MIN). RHP Braxton Ashcraft has been vulnerable to righties — .409 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Otto Lopez (MIA), Agustín Ramírez (MIA), and Griffin Conine (MIA). RHP Cade Cavalli has been vulnerable to righties — .398 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Alex Bregman (CHC), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Thursday, August 13, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, August 13, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Thursday, August 13, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on our total-bases over/under, against 46% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 46%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 45%

Full slate

74/16046%

season 50%

Top call Byron Buxton came through. Jackson Chourio didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 0–3

CLEaway

DEThomeTop matchup67 Final · 9–8

CINaway

CWShomeTop matchup88 Final · 13–1

PITaway

MIAhomeTop matchup79 Final · 1–0

SEAaway

NYYhomeTop matchup94 Final · 7–0

BOSaway

TORhomeTop matchup83 Final · 0–7

CHCaway

WSHhomeTop matchup84 Final · 7–1

PHIaway

MINhomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–7

TEXaway

LAAhomeTop matchup83 Final · 5–4

MILaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

Not starting41 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 203 shownScore

89 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@MIN· 2-for-5
8TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #28
T1
Rafael Flores Jr.C
PIT@MIA· 2-for-5
8TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #118
3
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsPHI· 2-for-3
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #106
T3
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@MIA· 3-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #116
T3
Jake MangumCF
PIT@MIA· 3-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #122
T3
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@TOR· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #137
7
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@CWS· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #14
T7
Abimelec Ortiz1B
WSHvsCHC· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #22
T7
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@CWS· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #35
T7
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@MIN· 2-for-2
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #123
11
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsCIN· 2-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #21
T11
Randal GrichukDH
CWSvsCIN· 2-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #27
T11
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@CWS· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #44
T11
Eduardo ValenciaDH
DETvsCLE· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #58
T11
Jacob GonzalezSS
PIT@MIA· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #105
T11
Weston Wilson3B
SEA@NYY· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #146
T11
Owen CaissieRF
MIAvsPIT· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #148
T11
Max Muncy3B
LADvsMIL· 1-for-1
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
19
Luis García Jr.1B
NYYvsSEA· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #5
T19
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsTEX· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #42
T19
Luis Arraez2B
PHI@MIN· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #61
T19
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsCHC· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #88
T19
Denzer Guzman3B
LAAvsTEX· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #119
T19
Edgar QueroC
CWSvsCIN· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #124
T19
Josh LoweLF
LAAvsTEX· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #127
26
Byron BuxtonCF
MINvsPHI· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #1
T26
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsMIL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #2
T26
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@TOR· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #12
T26
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsCHC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #20
T26
Ryan JeffersC
MINvsPHI· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #29
T26
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@MIA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #39
T26
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsPHI· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #40
T26
Spencer Horwitz1B
PIT@MIA· 2-for-6
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #49
T26
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsCLE· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #50
T26
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@MIN· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #54
T26
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@DET· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #55
T26
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@LAD· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #57
T26
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@MIA· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #70
T26
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@TOR· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #71
T26
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@TOR· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #84
T26
Javier BáezSS
DETvsCLE· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #114
T26
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsCIN· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #129
T26
Adam Frazier2B
LAAvsTEX· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #144
T26
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@MIN· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #151
45
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #4
T45
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@CWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #6
T45
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #8
T45
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@TOR· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #9
T45
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #10
T45
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@MIA· 1-for-6
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #16
T45
Gary SánchezC
MIL@LAD· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #17
T45
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@MIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #26
T45
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsCLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #38
T45
Michael Busch1B
CHC@WSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #41
T45
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #43
T45
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsPIT· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #46
T45
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsMIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #51
T45
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@NYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #52
T45
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsPIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #59
T45
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #69
T45
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@NYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #73
T45
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@MIN· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #77
T45
Brenton DoyleCF
CWSvsCIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #79
T45
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEX@LAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #80
T45
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #81
T45
Moisés BallesterosDH
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #83
T45
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSHvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #89
T45
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@NYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #94
T45
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsCHC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #99
T45
Ali SánchezC
NYYvsSEA· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #101
T45
Jose SiriCF
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #110
T45
Dane MyersCF
CIN@CWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #112
T45
Brady House3B
WSHvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #113
T45
Christian YelichDH
MIL@LAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #128
T45
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@MIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #132
T45
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B
CIN@CWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #133
T45
Kaelen CulpepperSS
MINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #134
T45
Ben MalgeriRF
DETvsCLE· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #140
T45
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsBOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #143
T45
Jhonny PeredaC
SEA@NYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #147
T45
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@TOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #150
T45
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWSvsCIN· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #152
T45
Austin WynnsC
TEX@LAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #153
T45
Evan CarterCF
TEX@LAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #154
T45
Ben RortvedtC
LADvsMIL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #156
T45
Nicky Lopez2B
TEX@LAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #157
T45
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@DET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #162
T45
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWSvsCIN· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T45
Angel MartínezLF
CLE@DET· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Thursday, August 13, 2026

Byron Buxton (MIN) is the top total bases matchup on the Thursday, August 13, 2026 board at 100, with Shohei Ohtani (LAD) and Jackson Chourio (MIL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton (MIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. The righty is racking up bases at .534 TB/PA against righties this year, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 49% of his trips. And Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties lately — .778 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .125 in 8 career PA against Aaron Nola, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs LHP Shane Drohan: an excellent bat at .488 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) (98) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: a solid bat at .394 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.412), due to bounce back.
Trent Grisham (NYY) (94) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: a solid bat at .404 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.433).
Luis García Jr. (NYY) (90) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: a strong bat at .475 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.433).
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (88) vs RHP Davis Martin: a league-average bat at .360 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.622).
Alex Bregman (CHC) (84) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: a strong bat at .457 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.625).
CJ Abrams (WSH) (83) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a solid bat at .392 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.462).

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Davis Martin has been getting squared up by righties — .423 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN).
RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .419 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Byron Buxton (MIN), Ryan Jeffers (MIN), and Royce Lewis (MIN).
RHP Braxton Ashcraft has been vulnerable to righties — .409 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Otto Lopez (MIA), Agustín Ramírez (MIA), and Griffin Conine (MIA).
RHP Cade Cavalli has been vulnerable to righties — .398 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Alex Bregman (CHC), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC).

Platoon edges to target

Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .360 against righties this year.
Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .560 against righties this year.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .380 against righties this year.
CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .503 against righties this year.
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .386 against righties this year.

How it played out

8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Byron Buxton finished with 2 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, August 13, 2026)?: Byron Buxton (MIN) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, August 13, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Thursday, August 13, 2026: Byron Buxton (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Jackson Chourio (98), Trent Grisham (94), Luis García Jr. (90). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Thursday, August 13, 2026?: Yes — Byron Buxton got 2 total bases.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .360 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .560 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .380 against righties this year. CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .503 against righties this year. Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .386 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Davis Martin has been getting squared up by righties — .423 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN). RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .419 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Byron Buxton (MIN), Ryan Jeffers (MIN), and Royce Lewis (MIN). RHP Braxton Ashcraft has been vulnerable to righties — .409 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Otto Lopez (MIA), Agustín Ramírez (MIA), and Griffin Conine (MIA). RHP Cade Cavalli has been vulnerable to righties — .398 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Alex Bregman (CHC), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.