Best MLB Walks Matchups — Friday, September 18, 2026
Top walks spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Eduardo Rodriguez. The righty is working counts at .222 BB/PA against lefties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a walk in about 16% of his trips. And Eduardo Rodriguez has been tough to walk against lefties lately — .051 walks per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .122 in 41 career PA against Eduardo Rodriguez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (97) vs RHP David Sandlin: an excellent bat at .143 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (94) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: an elite bat at .155 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.029).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (93) vs RHP the starter: an excellent bat at .148 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (89) vs RHP the starter: an excellent bat at .134 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (88) vs LHP Andrew Sears: an elite bat at .150 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (83) vs RHP Tyler Glasnow: an excellent bat at .123 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.176).
- J.P. Crawford (SEA) (82) vs RHP the starter: an excellent bat at .124 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Aaron Judge (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .222 against lefties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .187 against righties this year.
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .120 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays