MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Wednesday, May 27, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Spencer Horwitz
Spencer Horwitz (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jameson Taillon. The lefty is piling up fantasy points at — fantasy/PA against righties this year, a solid bat worth about 1.63 fantasy points a trip. And Jameson Taillon has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 12 career PA against Jameson Taillon. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Chad Stevens (COL) (100) vs RHP Shohei Ohtani: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) (100) vs RHP Eury Pérez: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) (100) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jackson Holliday (BAL) (100) vs LHP Steven Matz: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) (100) vs RHP Trey Gibson: a solid bat at 1.630 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up fantasy points today
- RHP Jameson Taillon has been giving up points to righties — 1.600 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Spencer Horwitz (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
- RHP Braxton Ashcraft has been giving up points to righties — 1.600 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Nico Hoerner (CHC), and Michael Busch (CHC).
- RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been giving up points to righties — 1.600 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
- RHP Shohei Ohtani has been giving up points to righties — 1.600 fantasy points per batter faced. Bats to target: Chad Stevens (COL), Tyler Freeman (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).
How it played out
8 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Spencer Horwitz finished with 5 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays