MLB DFS Projections — Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Plays — Monday, August 10, 2026
Top fantasy points spot: Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, projected for about 1.73 fantasy points per plate appearance across 4.7 projected trips. We build the number bottom-up — summing his projection on every component board — so it moves with each of those matchups instead of a single rate, and inherits their tuning.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at 1.692 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (97) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at 1.747 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (96) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at 1.706 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (96) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at 1.748 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (92) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at 1.679 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (92) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at 1.685 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (92) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at 1.718 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 fantasy points matchups landed at least one fantasy point. Top play Jeremy Peña finished with 7 fantasy points. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these fantasy points matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's fantasy points per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the fantasy points board is
The Fantasy Points board projects a hitter's projected DraftKings fantasy points, with salary and value. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His hit, extra-base, run, RBI, walk and steal projections, run through the DK scoring formula.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Built bottom-up from our tuned component boards, so it inherits all their tuning and stays internally consistent. This one's for DFS, not a book market — the value column (points per $1k) is the lever.
How to use it
Sort by value to find the cheap bats that project like expensive ones, then build with the optimizer.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays