Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, May 25, 2026)?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, May 25, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Monday, May 25, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Carson Benge (95), Willy Adames (95), Carlos Cortes (87), Spencer Horwitz (84). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, May 25, 2026?

Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .208 against righties this year. Carlos Cortes (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .288 against righties this year. Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .240 against righties this year. Byron Buxton (MIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .233 against lefties this year. Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting tattooed by lefties — .292 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL). RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting tattooed by righties — .291 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Teoscar Hernández (LAD). RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .289 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Yohendrick Piñango (TOR), and Myles Straw (TOR). RHP Merrill Kelly has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Willy Adames (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Monday, May 25, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, May 25, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, May 25, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 64% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 64%

Top 10

8/1080%

season 66%

Full slate

125/23453%

season 56%

Top call Shohei Ohtani came through. Carlos Cortes didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 7–9

TBaway

BALhomeTop matchup82 Final · 1–2

CHCaway

PIThomeTop matchup84 Final · 1–3

MINaway

CWShomeTop matchup82 Final · 1–5

STLaway

MILhomeTop matchup75 Final · 4–3

NYYaway

KChomeTop matchup62 Final · 7–2

CINaway

NYMhomeTop matchup95 Final · 6–2

AZaway

SFhomeTop matchup95 Final · 10–2

WSHaway

CLEhomeTop matchup61 Final · 3–0

PHIaway

SDhomeTop matchup73 Final · 9–0

HOUaway

TEXhomeTop matchup65 Final · 8–2

MIAaway

TORhomeTop matchup82 Final · 3–5

COLaway

LADhomeTop matchup100 Final · 9–2

SEAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup87

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

125 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@SF· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T1
James WoodRF
WSH@CLE· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #64
3
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsMIA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T3
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsSTL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T3
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@BAL· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #54
T3
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@ATH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #56
T3
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsCIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #61
T3
Luis García Jr.1B
WSH@CLE· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #67
T3
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsTB· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T3
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsTB· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T3
J.C. EscarraC
NYY@KC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #227
12
Spencer Horwitz1B
PITvsCHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T12
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsPHI· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T12
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T12
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T12
Christian YelichDH
MILvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T12
Luke RaleyRF
SEA@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #59
T12
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@SD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T12
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@SF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T12
Andy PagesCF
LADvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T12
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T12
Oneil CruzCF
PITvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T12
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@PIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T12
Curtis Mead3B
WSH@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T12
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@NYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T12
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T12
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T12
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T12
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T12
Ty France1B
SDvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #143
T12
Richie Palacios2B
TB@BAL· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #149
T12
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #150
T12
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T12
Willi Castro2B
COL@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
T12
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #161
T12
Nick AllenSS
HOU@TEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T12
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T12
Luis RengifoLF
MILvsSTL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T12
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T12
Darell HernaizSS
ATHvsSEA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T12
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@LAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T12
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T12
Christian VázquezC
HOU@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #215
44
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T44
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T44
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T44
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T44
Junior Caminero3B
TB@BAL· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T44
Yohendrick PiñangoLF
TORvsMIA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T44
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T44
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@TOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T44
Troy JohnstonRF
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T44
Miguel AndujarDH
SDvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T44
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T44
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T44
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T44
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T44
Mark Vientos1B
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T44
Braden ShewmakeSS
HOU@TEX· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T44
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T44
Aaron JudgeRF
NYY@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T44
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T44
JJ BledayLF
CIN@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T44
Liam HicksC
MIA@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T44
William ContrerasC
MILvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T44
Michael Busch1B
CHC@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T44
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T44
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T44
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #55
T44
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #58
T44
Hyeseong KimSS
LADvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #63
T44
Maikel Garcia3B
KCvsNYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T44
Taylor WardDH
BALvsTB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T44
Jose FernandezDH
AZ@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T44
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T44
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T44
Shea LangeliersC
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T44
Petey HalpinCF
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T44
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T44
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T44
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWSvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T44
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T44
Christian Walker1B
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T44
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TORvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T44
Cole Young2B
SEA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T44
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T44
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@SF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T44
Angel MartínezLF
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T44
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T44
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #139
T44
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #144
T44
Jeremiah Jackson2B
BALvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #151
T44
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #152
T44
Joe MackC
MIA@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #154
T44
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #156
T44
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #158
T44
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T44
Anthony VolpeSS
NYY@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T44
José CaballeroSS
NYY@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #166
T44
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T44
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T44
Spencer Steer1B
CIN@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T44
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T44
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T44
Rikuu NishidaRF
CWSvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T44
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T44
Colton CowserCF
BALvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T44
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T44
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T44
Cam SmithRF
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T44
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #204
T44
Drew RomoC
CWSvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #205
T44
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsNYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #208
T44
Jhonny PeredaC
SEA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #209
T44
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #211
T44
Brice MatthewsCF
HOU@TEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #213
T44
Pedro PagésC
STL@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #217
T44
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #218
T44
Taylor WallsSS
TB@BAL· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #220
T44
Lenyn Sosa2B
TORvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #221
T44
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #224
T44
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TB@BAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #226
T44
Henry DavisC
PITvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #230
T44
Kyle Karros3B
COL@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #231
T44
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.7 H, #234

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, May 25, 2026

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the top hits matchup on the Monday, May 25, 2026 board at 100, with Carson Benge (NYM) and Willy Adames (SF) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. The lefty is hitting .208 H/PA against righties this year — and .298 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Tanner Gordon has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .375 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .222 in 9 career PA against Tanner Gordon. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Carson Benge (NYM) (95) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a strong bat at .268 into an arm tough on the same side (.188), due to bounce back.
Willy Adames (SF) (95) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .270 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
Carlos Cortes (ATH) (87) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a strong bat at .265 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.263), hot bat.
Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (84) vs RHP Ben Brown: a strong bat at .262 into an arm tough on the same side (.207).
Byron Buxton (MIN) (82) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a strong bat at .253 into an arm tough on the same side (.167).
Nathan Lukes (TOR) (82) vs RHP Janson Junk: a solid bat at .240 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.368).
Junior Caminero (TB) (82) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a solid bat at .236 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.231), hot bat.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting tattooed by lefties — .292 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL).
RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting tattooed by righties — .291 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Teoscar Hernández (LAD).
RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .289 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Yohendrick Piñango (TOR), and Myles Straw (TOR).
RHP Merrill Kelly has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Willy Adames (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).

Platoon edges to target

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .208 against righties this year.
Carlos Cortes (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .288 against righties this year.
Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .240 against righties this year.
Byron Buxton (MIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .233 against lefties this year.
Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Carlos Cortes (ATH), Junior Caminero (TB), Blake Dunn (CIN), Ketel Marte (AZ), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Brice Turang (MIL). Cold but due to bounce back: Carson Benge (NYM), Nick Gonzales (PIT), Sam Antonacci (CWS), Braden Shewmake (HOU), and Manny Machado (SD).

How it played out

8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, May 25, 2026)?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, May 25, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Monday, May 25, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Carson Benge (95), Willy Adames (95), Carlos Cortes (87), Spencer Horwitz (84). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, May 25, 2026?: Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .208 against righties this year. Carlos Cortes (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .288 against righties this year. Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .240 against righties this year. Byron Buxton (MIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .233 against lefties this year. Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting tattooed by lefties — .292 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL). RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting tattooed by righties — .291 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Teoscar Hernández (LAD). RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .289 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Yohendrick Piñango (TOR), and Myles Straw (TOR). RHP Merrill Kelly has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Willy Adames (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Carlos Cortes (ATH), Junior Caminero (TB), Blake Dunn (CIN), Ketel Marte (AZ), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Brice Turang (MIL). Cold but due to bounce back: Carson Benge (NYM), Nick Gonzales (PIT), Sam Antonacci (CWS), Braden Shewmake (HOU), and Manny Machado (SD).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.