Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, August 8, 2026)?

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Andrew Alvarez. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, August 8, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Saturday, August 8, 2026: Elly De La Cruz (100), Cole Carrigg (100), Jonathan Aranda (100), Freddie Freeman (100), Jordan Walker (98). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, August 8, 2026?

No — Elly De La Cruz didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .297 against lefties this year. Cole Carrigg (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .281 against lefties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .287 against righties this year. Jordan Walker (STL) — righty bat vs LHP, .260 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Max Scherzer has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Trea Turner (PHI). RHP Peter Lambert has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ty France (SD), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Manny Machado (SD). LHP Matthew Liberatore has been giving up plenty to lefties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Cole Carrigg (COL), Kyle Karros (COL), and Jake McCarthy (COL). RHP Casey Legumina has been giving up plenty to righties — .255 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), and Cole Young (SEA).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Saturday, August 8, 2026

Every hitter on the Saturday, August 8, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Saturday, August 8, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 67%

Top 10

5/1050%

season 67%

Full slate

170/27063%

season 58%

Top call Cole Carrigg came through. Elly De La Cruz didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 4–5

ATLaway

NYYhomeTop matchup79 Final · 0–7

LAAaway

MIAhomeTop matchup62 Final · 7–3

ATHaway

BOShomeTop matchup91 Final · 7–5

TORaway

PHIhomeTop matchup77 Final · 0–9

NYMaway

PIThomeTop matchup96 Final · 2–8

CINaway

WSHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–6

CHCaway

KChomeTop matchup85 Final · 3–4

MINaway

MILhomeTop matchup68 Final · 2–3

HOUaway

SDhomeTop matchup98 Final · 8–0

DETaway

SFhomeTop matchup88 Final · 8–6

COLaway

STLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–5

BALaway

TEXhomeTop matchup78 Final · 3–6

CLEaway

CWShomeTop matchup79 Final · 2–1

LADaway

AZhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–2

TBaway

SEAhomeTop matchup100

Not starting59 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 329 shownScore

173 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@STL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T1
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsCHC· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
3
Jake MangumCF
PITvsNYM· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T3
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsCOL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T3
Jahmai JonesDH
BOSvsATH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T3
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@PHI· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T3
Brice Turang2B
MILvsMIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #76
T3
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsATH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T3
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsTB· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
10
Cole CarriggCF
COL@STL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T10
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@SEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T10
Luis Arraez2B
PHIvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #29
T10
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@TEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T10
José FermínLF
STLvsCOL· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T10
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsCIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T10
Andy PagesCF
LAD@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T10
Jacob WilsonSS
ATH@BOS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T10
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T10
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T10
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsTOR· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T10
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@MIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #88
T10
Angel MartínezLF
CLE@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T10
Ronny Simon2B
PITvsNYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #94
T10
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@STL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T10
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsLAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T10
Spencer JonesRF
NYYvsATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T10
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T10
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@PHI· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T10
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsLAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T10
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T10
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T10
Ian HappLF
CHC@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T10
Max ClarkCF
DET@SF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T10
George Lombard Jr.SS
NYYvsATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T10
Henry DavisC
PITvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #176
T10
Javier BáezSS
DET@SF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T10
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T10
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T10
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T10
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLE@CWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T10
Richie Palacios2B
TB@SEA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T10
Angel Genao2B
CLE@CWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T10
Austin WynnsC
TEXvsBAL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
44
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T44
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T44
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #7
T44
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T44
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@SF· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T44
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@AZ· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T44
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T44
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T44
Jo AdellRF
CLE@CWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T44
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T44
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #28
T44
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATL@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T44
Dillon DinglerC
DET@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T44
Blaze Jordan3B
STLvsCOL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T44
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T44
Henry BolteCF
ATH@BOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T44
Jordan BeckLF
COL@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T44
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T44
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T44
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T44
Abimelec Ortiz1B
WSHvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T44
Steven KwanLF
CLE@CWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T44
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T44
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATH@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T44
Dane MyersCF
CIN@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T44
Ryan JeffersC
MIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T44
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #58
T44
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T44
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T44
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsTOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T44
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYYvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T44
Michael Busch1B
CHC@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T44
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T44
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOSvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #72
T44
Cole Young2B
SEAvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T44
Corey SeagerSS
TEXvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #75
T44
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@CWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #77
T44
Jonah HeimC
ATH@BOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #78
T44
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T44
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T44
Taylor WardDH
SEAvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T44
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T44
Tommy White3B
ATH@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #89
T44
Manny Machado3B
SDvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T44
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T44
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T44
Jesús SánchezRF
TOR@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #97
T44
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T44
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T44
Josh BellDH
MIN@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T44
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T44
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TB@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T44
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@PIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T44
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T44
William ContrerasC
MILvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T44
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T44
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T44
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T44
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T44
Riley GreeneLF
DET@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T44
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T44
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T44
John RaveRF
KCvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T44
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T44
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYM@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T44
Jacob GonzalezSS
PITvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T44
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T44
Christian Walker1B
HOU@SD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T44
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T44
Brian ServenC
ATH@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T44
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T44
Nathan ChurchCF
STLvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T44
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T44
Michael Massey2B
KCvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T44
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T44
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T44
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
T44
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T44
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@SEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #163
T44
James McCannC
AZvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #164
T44
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T44
Eddys LeonardSS
SFvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T44
Tyler O'NeillRF
BAL@TEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T44
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T44
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T44
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T44
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T44
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T44
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T44
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T44
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BAL@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T44
Austin Riley3B
ATL@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T44
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T44
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsCHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T44
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T44
Noelvi MarteRF
CIN@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T44
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T44
Carson KellyC
CHC@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T44
Jim JarvisSS
ATL@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T44
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T44
Hunter FeducciaC
LAD@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T44
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T44
Taylor TrammellCF
HOU@SD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T44
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsNYM· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T44
Josh Rojas3B
KCvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T44
Brendan Donovan3B
SEAvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T44
Colton CowserCF
BAL@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T44
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T44
Tim Tawa1B
AZvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T44
Teoscar HernándezLF
LAD@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T44
Jacob YoungCF
WSHvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
T44
José TenaDH
WSHvsCIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #242
T44
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #243
T44
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T44
Owen CaissieRF
MIAvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #246
T44
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #249
T44
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #250
T44
Tyrone TaylorLF
CHC@KC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #251
T44
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #255
T44
Christian YelichDH
MILvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #256
T44
Gavin Sheets1B
SDvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T44
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261
T44
Ryan KreidlerSS
MIN@MIL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T44
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
T44
Austin WellsC
NYYvsATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
T44
Tyler HeinemanC
LAA@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
T44
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsTB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #268
T44
Héctor RodríguezRF
CIN@WSH· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T44
Yainer DiazC
HOU@SD· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T44
Dominic SmithDH
ATL@NYY· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, August 8, 2026

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) is the top hits matchup on the Saturday, August 8, 2026 board at 100, with Cole Carrigg (COL) and Jonathan Aranda (TB) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Elly De La Cruz

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Andrew Alvarez. The righty is hitting .297 H/PA against lefties this year — and .455 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Andrew Alvarez has been mostly holding up against lefties lately — .222 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Andrew Alvarez. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Cole Carrigg (COL) (100) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a strong bat at .262 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.300), due to bounce back.
Jonathan Aranda (TB) (100) vs RHP George Kirby: a strong bat at .263 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.269), hot bat.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (100) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: an excellent bat at .292 into an arm tough on the same side (.167).
Jordan Walker (STL) (98) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .241 into an arm tough on the same side (.194), hot bat.
Jeremy Peña (HOU) (98) vs RHP Michael King: an excellent bat at .294 into an arm tough on the same side (.143), due to bounce back.
Brandon Lowe (PIT) (96) vs RHP Robert Stock: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250).
Kyle Karros (COL) (94) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a strong bat at .254 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.300).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Max Scherzer has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Trea Turner (PHI).
RHP Peter Lambert has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ty France (SD), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Manny Machado (SD).
LHP Matthew Liberatore has been giving up plenty to lefties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Cole Carrigg (COL), Kyle Karros (COL), and Jake McCarthy (COL).
RHP Casey Legumina has been giving up plenty to righties — .255 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), and Cole Young (SEA).

Platoon edges to target

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .297 against lefties this year.
Cole Carrigg (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .281 against lefties this year.
Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .287 against righties this year.
Jordan Walker (STL) — righty bat vs LHP, .260 against lefties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Jonathan Aranda (TB), Jordan Walker (STL), Caleb Durbin (BOS), Jake McCarthy (COL), and Osleivis Basabe (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Cole Carrigg (COL), Jeremy Peña (HOU), Hunter Goodman (COL), Jo Adell (CLE), and Jackson Holliday (BAL).

How it played out

5 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Elly De La Cruz finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, August 8, 2026)?: Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Andrew Alvarez. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, August 8, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Saturday, August 8, 2026: Elly De La Cruz (100), Cole Carrigg (100), Jonathan Aranda (100), Freddie Freeman (100), Jordan Walker (98). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, August 8, 2026?: No — Elly De La Cruz didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .297 against lefties this year. Cole Carrigg (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .281 against lefties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .287 against righties this year. Jordan Walker (STL) — righty bat vs LHP, .260 against lefties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Max Scherzer has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Trea Turner (PHI). RHP Peter Lambert has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ty France (SD), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Manny Machado (SD). LHP Matthew Liberatore has been giving up plenty to lefties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Cole Carrigg (COL), Kyle Karros (COL), and Jake McCarthy (COL). RHP Casey Legumina has been giving up plenty to righties — .255 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), and Cole Young (SEA).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Jonathan Aranda (TB), Jordan Walker (STL), Caleb Durbin (BOS), Jake McCarthy (COL), and Osleivis Basabe (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Cole Carrigg (COL), Jeremy Peña (HOU), Hunter Goodman (COL), Jo Adell (CLE), and Jackson Holliday (BAL).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.