Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, June 3, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zac Gallen. The lefty is going deep on .037 HR/PA against righties this year — and .079 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Zac Gallen has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .080 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .238 in 21 career PA against Zac Gallen. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (85) vs RHP George Kirby: big-time bat at .051 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.032).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (81) vs RHP Walker Buehler: big-time bat at .054 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (70) vs RHP Gavin Williams: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (65) vs RHP Colin Rea: real bat at .043 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.038).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (63) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: real bat at .048 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (62) vs RHP Troy Melton: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) (61) vs RHP Taj Bradley: real bat at .047 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.048), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .037 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .085 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .093 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .074 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .043 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.