Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, July 24, 2026
Top home runs spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Davis Martin. The lefty is going deep on .079 HR/PA against righties this year — and .156 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Davis Martin has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Davis Martin. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (73) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: elite bat at .066 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.061).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (56) vs LHP Sean Manaea: big-time bat at .058 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.071).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (54) vs LHP Joey Cantillo: big-time bat at .054 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (53) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (53) vs LHP Shane Drohan: big-time bat at .053 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (51) vs RHP Will Warren: big-time bat at .052 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (50) vs RHP Jared Jones: real bat at .049 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .080 against righties this year.
- Junior Caminero (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .058 against lefties this year.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .043 against lefties this year.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .063 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.