Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Monday, May 25, 2026
Top rbis spot: Willy Adames
Willy Adames (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The righty is driving in runs at — RBI/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a RBI in about 11% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .281 in 32 career PA against Merrill Kelly. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .105 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (100) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: a solid bat at .105 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (96) vs RHP Ben Brown: a solid bat at .105 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (96) vs RHP Carmen Mlodzinski: a solid bat at .105 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Taylor Ward (BAL) (96) vs LHP Shane McClanahan: a solid bat at .105 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (96) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a solid bat at .105 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) (96) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: a solid bat at .105 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Willy Adames finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays