Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Friday, August 14, 2026
Top rbis spot: Bo Bichette
Bo Bichette (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Andrew Alvarez. The righty is driving in runs at .156 RBI/PA against lefties this year — and .357 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 18% of his trips. And Andrew Alvarez has been stingy with runs against lefties lately — .097 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Andrew Alvarez too — 1.000 across 1 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs LHP Robert Gasser: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Eduardo Valencia (DET) (100) vs LHP Sean Newcomb: an elite bat at .206 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.154).
- Jake Burger (TEX) (99) vs LHP Gage Jump: an elite bat at .169 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.210), due to bounce back.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) (98) vs LHP Jake Bennett: an elite bat at .205 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (94) vs RHP Landen Roupp: an excellent bat at .154 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.154).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (91) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: an excellent bat at .155 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (90) vs RHP Chris Bassitt: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Bo Bichette (NYM) — righty bat vs LHP, .156 against lefties this year.
- Eduardo Valencia (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .381 against lefties this year.
- Jake Burger (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .196 against lefties this year.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .296 against lefties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Bo Bichette finished with 1 RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays