Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Thursday, September 3, 2026
Top rbis spot: Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Cal Quantrill. The righty is driving in runs at .163 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .140 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 14% of his trips. And Cal Quantrill has been mostly holding up against righties lately — .100 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 4 career PA against Cal Quantrill. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .138 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.095).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (100) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: an excellent bat at .147 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) (98) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .129 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.095).
- Tommy Edman (LAD) (96) vs LHP Quinn Mathews: a strong bat at .125 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.222).
- Heriberto Hernández (MIA) (90) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a strong bat at .125 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.071).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (89) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a strong bat at .130 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.238).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (89) vs RHP Cal Quantrill: a strong bat at .139 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.040).
Platoon edges to target
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .131 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .172 against righties this year.
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.
- Tommy Edman (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .171 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .157 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Junior Caminero finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays