Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Wednesday, September 2, 2026
Top rbis spot: Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The righty is driving in runs at .166 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .229 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 16% of his trips. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting lit up by righties lately — .318 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Tomoyuki Sugano, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (91) vs RHP Taylor Clarke: an excellent bat at .145 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.176), due to bounce back.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (90) vs RHP Brad Lord: an excellent bat at .141 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (89) vs RHP Landen Roupp: an excellent bat at .148 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (82) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .137 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (82) vs RHP Casey Mize: an excellent bat at .144 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.368), hot bat.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (80) vs RHP Justin Hagenman: an excellent bat at .144 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (75) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .157 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .161 against righties this year.
- Riley Greene (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .121 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays