Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Friday, September 25, 2026
Top rbis spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Jacob Lopez. The lefty is driving in runs at .145 RBI/PA against lefties this year — and .077 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a RBI in about 14% of his trips. And Jacob Lopez has been getting lit up by lefties lately — .385 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 6 career PA against Jacob Lopez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (95) vs RHP Yunior Marte: a strong bat at .133 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.048), hitter's park.
- Riley Greene (DET) (91) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: an excellent bat at .154 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.103), due to bounce back.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (91) vs RHP Jackson Jobe: an elite bat at .172 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) (90) vs RHP Brendan Beck: an elite bat at .170 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) (89) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .131 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.296), hot bat.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (89) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .131 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (88) vs RHP Eury Pérez: an excellent bat at .158 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.174).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .130 against righties this year.
- Riley Greene (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .172 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .134 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
Best parks to drive in runs today
- Oracle Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) at 95.
- Petco Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) at 88.
Lineup watch
306 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays