Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Top runs spot: Jake Cronenworth
Jake Cronenworth (SD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is scoring at .117 R/PA against righties this year — and .143 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been getting lit up by righties lately — .241 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Michael Lorenzen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (98) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .141 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (90) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .117 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (89) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: a strong bat at .138 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.353).
- Trea Turner (PHI) (89) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: a strong bat at .135 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.129).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (86) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .131 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.040).
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (86) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a solid bat at .127 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Manny Machado (SD) (85) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .128 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Jake Cronenworth (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .117 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .145 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .132 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.