Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Top runs spot: Jake Cronenworth
Jake Cronenworth (SD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is scoring at .117 R/PA against righties this year — and .161 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been getting lit up by righties lately — .400 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Michael Lorenzen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (98) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .143 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (94) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .124 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Trea Turner (PHI) (87) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: a strong bat at .133 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.129).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (87) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: a strong bat at .138 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.353).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (86) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .132 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.040).
- Jackson Merrill (SD) (85) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.400).
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (84) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a solid bat at .128 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Jake Cronenworth (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .117 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .147 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .127 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Jake Cronenworth finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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