Best MLB Runs Matchups — Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Top runs spot: Kevin McGonigle
Kevin McGonigle (DET) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bryan Woo. The lefty is scoring at .155 R/PA against righties this year — and .167 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Bryan Woo has been getting lit up by righties lately — .167 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Bryan Woo too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (100) vs RHP Jake Irvin: a strong bat at .131 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.133), due to bounce back.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (100) vs RHP Dean Kremer: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (100) vs RHP Jameson Taillon: an excellent bat at .162 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.500).
- Trea Turner (PHI) (100) vs RHP Jake Irvin: a strong bat at .134 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.600).
- Wyatt Langford (TEX) (99) vs LHP Carson Whisenhunt: a solid bat at .129 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.270), due to bounce back.
- Victor Mesa Jr. (TB) (99) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a league-average bat at .116 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.091), due to bounce back.
- Gleyber Torres (DET) (97) vs RHP Bryan Woo: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.294).
Platoon edges to target
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .155 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year.
- Wyatt Langford (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .160 against lefties this year.
- Victor Mesa Jr. (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .124 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Kevin McGonigle finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays