Best MLB Singles Matchups — Sunday, August 2, 2026
Top singles spot: Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez (SF) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Hart. The lefty is lining singles at .212 1B/PA against lefties this year — and .200 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a single in about 18% of his trips. And Kyle Hart has been getting picked apart by lefties lately — .231 singles per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Kyle Hart, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: an excellent bat at .181 into an arm fairly stingy against the same side (.125), hot bat.
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (100) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: an elite bat at .194 into an arm tough to string hits off the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (100) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an elite bat at .200 into an arm around league average against the same side (.148).
- Luis Rengifo (SD) (99) vs RHP Landen Roupp: an excellent bat at .174 into an arm fairly stingy against the same side (.125).
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) (96) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: an excellent bat at .175 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.306).
- Bo Bichette (NYM) (94) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: an excellent bat at .189 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.219).
- Nick Loftin (KC) (93) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .166 into an arm tough to string hits off the same side (.086).
Platoon edges to target
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .190 against righties this year.
- Luis Rengifo (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .173 against righties this year.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) — righty bat vs LHP, .180 against lefties this year.
- Nick Loftin (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .176 against lefties this year.
- Jake Mangum (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .224 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Jeremy Peña (HOU), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Jake Mangum (PIT), Andy Pages (LAD), and Ryan Jeffers (MIN). Cold but due to bounce back: Starling Marte (KC), Tommy Edman (LAD), José Ramírez (CLE), Cole Carrigg (COL), and Jo Adell (LAA).
How it played out
6 of the top 10 singles matchups landed at least one single. Top play Luis Arraez finished with 0 singles. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these singles matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's singles per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.