Who has the best total bases matchup today (Monday, May 25, 2026)?

Willy Adames (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Monday, May 25, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Monday, May 25, 2026: Willy Adames (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Jake McCarthy (100), Spencer Horwitz (96), Pete Crow-Armstrong (96). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Monday, May 25, 2026?

Yes — Willy Adames got 1 total base.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Merrill Kelly has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Willy Adames (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF). RHP Tanner Gordon has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Mookie Betts (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD). RHP Emmet Sheehan has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Hunter Goodman (COL), and Edouard Julien (COL). RHP Ben Brown has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Spencer Horwitz (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Monday, May 25, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, May 25, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, May 25, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on our total-bases over/under, against 47% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 47%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 50%

Full slate

104/20152%

season 48%

Top call Shohei Ohtani came through. Willy Adames didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 7–9

TBaway

BALhomeTop matchup96 Final · 1–2

CHCaway

PIThomeTop matchup96 Final · 1–3

MINaway

CWShomeTop matchup96 Final · 1–5

STLaway

MILhomeTop matchup75 Final · 4–3

NYYaway

KChomeTop matchup83 Final · 7–2

CINaway

NYMhomeTop matchup92 Final · 6–2

AZaway

SFhomeTop matchup100 Final · 10–2

WSHaway

CLEhomeTop matchup75 Final · 3–0

PHIaway

SDhomeTop matchup87 Final · 9–0

HOUaway

TEXhomeTop matchup83 Final · 8–2

MIAaway

TORhomeTop matchup96 Final · 3–5

COLaway

LADhomeTop matchup100 Final · 9–2

SEAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup83

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

125 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Curtis Mead3B
WSH@CLE· 2-for-5
8TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #102
2
James WoodRF
WSH@CLE· 4-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #51
T2
Luis García Jr.1B
WSH@CLE· 3-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #74
T2
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@ATH· 3-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #108
5
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@BAL· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #62
6
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@SF· 4-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #9
T6
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@SD· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #41
T6
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsCIN· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #84
T6
Christian YelichDH
MILvsSTL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #120
T6
Luke RaleyRF
SEA@ATH· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #129
T6
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsSTL· 3-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #136
T6
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsMIA· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #146
T6
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@LAD· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #164
T6
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@CLE· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #198
15
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@BAL· 3-for-6
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #12
T15
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@CWS· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #20
T15
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@ATH· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #28
T15
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWSvsMIN· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #39
T15
Michael Busch1B
CHC@PIT· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T15
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsNYY· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #52
T15
JJ BledayLF
CIN@NYM· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #59
T15
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@TOR· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #70
T15
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@TEX· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #78
T15
Shea LangeliersC
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #79
T15
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsNYY· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #103
T15
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@KC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #104
T15
Christian Walker1B
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #106
T15
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@SD· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #115
T15
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #122
T15
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@SF· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #140
T15
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@TOR· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #147
T15
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TB@BAL· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #168
T15
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@ATH· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #186
T15
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@NYM· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #188
T15
Drew RomoC
CWSvsMIN· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #191
T15
Henry DavisC
PITvsCHC· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #199
T15
Colton CowserCF
BALvsTB· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #214
38
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsCHC· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #17
T38
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsMIA· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #21
T38
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsCIN· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #29
T38
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsTB· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #68
T38
Andy PagesCF
LADvsCOL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #82
T38
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@NYM· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #110
T38
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsTB· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #132
T38
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@CLE· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #139
T38
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsTB· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #150
T38
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@TOR· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #153
T38
J.C. EscarraC
NYY@KC· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #203
T38
Darell HernaizSS
ATHvsSEA· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #229
50
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsCOL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #2
T50
Spencer Horwitz1B
PITvsCHC· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #4
T50
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@CWS· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #7
T50
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@TOR· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #8
T50
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsPHI· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #14
T50
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsAZ· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #31
T50
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@SF· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #32
T50
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsAZ· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #35
T50
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsCOL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #36
T50
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #50
T50
Aaron JudgeRF
NYY@KC· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #53
T50
Braden ShewmakeSS
HOU@TEX· 1-for-1
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #55
T50
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@PIT· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #67
T50
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@ATH· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #80
T50
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsAZ· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #81
T50
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #83
T50
Oneil CruzCF
PITvsCHC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #94
T50
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsMIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #97
T50
Richie Palacios2B
TB@BAL· 2-for-6
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #112
T50
Willi Castro2B
COL@LAD· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #119
T50
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #128
T50
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@KC· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #155
T50
Cole Young2B
SEA@ATH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #159
T50
Jose FernandezDH
AZ@SF· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #166
T50
Ty France1B
SDvsPHI· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #170
T50
Luis RengifoLF
MILvsSTL· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #174
T50
Angel MartínezLF
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #176
T50
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #187
T50
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsNYY· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #202
T50
Nick AllenSS
HOU@TEX· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #205
T50
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsAZ· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #210
T50
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsSTL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #221
T50
Christian VázquezC
HOU@TEX· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #228
83
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsAZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #1
T83
Taylor WardDH
BALvsTB· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #6
T83
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #10
T83
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsMIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #13
T83
Junior Caminero3B
TB@BAL· 1-for-6
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #19
T83
Liam HicksC
MIA@TOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #22
T83
Maikel Garcia3B
KCvsNYY· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #23
T83
Miguel AndujarDH
SDvsPHI· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #40
T83
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #42
T83
Yohendrick PiñangoLF
TORvsMIA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #47
T83
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@MIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #49
T83
Mark Vientos1B
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #58
T83
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@SF· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #60
T83
Troy JohnstonRF
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #88
T83
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsMIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #93
T83
Jeremiah Jackson2B
BALvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #96
T83
William ContrerasC
MILvsSTL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #99
T83
Petey HalpinCF
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #101
T83
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #109
T83
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsCOL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #133
T83
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #141
T83
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@CWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #151
T83
Cam SmithRF
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #157
T83
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #158
T83
Spencer Steer1B
CIN@NYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #161
T83
Hyeseong KimSS
LADvsCOL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #167
T83
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TORvsMIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #179
T83
Joe MackC
MIA@TOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #180
T83
Anthony VolpeSS
NYY@KC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #182
T83
Brice MatthewsCF
HOU@TEX· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #184
T83
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #185
T83
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #206
T83
Jhonny PeredaC
SEA@ATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #207
T83
Kyle Karros3B
COL@LAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #213
T83
Taylor WallsSS
TB@BAL· 1-for-6
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #215
T83
Rikuu NishidaRF
CWSvsMIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #216
T83
Lenyn Sosa2B
TORvsMIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #219
T83
Pedro PagésC
STL@MIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #222
T83
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #223
T83
José CaballeroSS
NYY@KC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #226
T83
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #231
T83
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #233
T83
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@CLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #234

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Monday, May 25, 2026

Willy Adames (SF) is the top total bases matchup on the Monday, May 25, 2026 board at 100, with Shohei Ohtani (LAD) and Jake McCarthy (COL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Willy Adames

Willy Adames (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The righty is racking up bases at — TB/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 37% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .281 in 32 career PA against Merrill Kelly. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Jake McCarthy (COL) (100) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (96) vs RHP Ben Brown: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (96) vs RHP Carmen Mlodzinski: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Taylor Ward (BAL) (96) vs LHP Shane McClanahan: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Byron Buxton (MIN) (96) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Xavier Edwards (MIA) (96) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Merrill Kelly has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Willy Adames (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
RHP Tanner Gordon has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Mookie Betts (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
RHP Emmet Sheehan has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Hunter Goodman (COL), and Edouard Julien (COL).
RHP Ben Brown has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Spencer Horwitz (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).

How it played out

8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Willy Adames finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Monday, May 25, 2026)?: Willy Adames (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Monday, May 25, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Monday, May 25, 2026: Willy Adames (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Jake McCarthy (100), Spencer Horwitz (96), Pete Crow-Armstrong (96). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Monday, May 25, 2026?: Yes — Willy Adames got 1 total base.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Merrill Kelly has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Willy Adames (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF). RHP Tanner Gordon has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Mookie Betts (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD). RHP Emmet Sheehan has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Hunter Goodman (COL), and Edouard Julien (COL). RHP Ben Brown has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Spencer Horwitz (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.