Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Top total bases spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Wacha. The lefty is racking up bases at .427 TB/PA against righties this year — and .593 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 43% of his trips. And Michael Wacha has been tough on righties lately — .207 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael Wacha too — .333 across 6 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Junior Caminero (TB) (99) vs RHP Mason Barnett: an excellent bat at .483 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.542).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (95) vs RHP Tanner Bibee: a solid bat at .401 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
- Ryan Jeffers (MIN) (95) vs RHP Brandon Young: a league-average bat at .362 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.850).
- Zack Gelof (ATH) (93) vs RHP Nick Martinez: a strong bat at .422 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.750).
- Nick Loftin (KC) (92) vs LHP Blake Snell: a league-average bat at .350 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Andy Pages (LAD) (91) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a solid bat at .393 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.444).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (90) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a league-average bat at .369 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.429).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- LHP Carson Whisenhunt has been getting squared up by lefties — .443 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Isaac Paredes (HOU), and Jose Altuve (HOU).
- RHP Brandon Young has been getting squared up by righties — .440 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ryan Jeffers (MIN), Royce Lewis (MIN), and Luke Keaschall (MIN).
- RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been vulnerable to righties — .413 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Corbin Carroll (AZ), Lars Nootbaar (AZ), and Gabriel Moreno (AZ).
- LHP Patrick Sandoval has been vulnerable to lefties — .406 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brett Bateman (TOR), Charles McAdoo (TOR), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .427 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .384 against righties this year.
- Nick Loftin (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .339 against lefties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .374 against righties this year.
- Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .437 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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