Best MLB Triples Matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026
Top triples spot: Willi Castro
Willi Castro (COL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Robbie Ray. The righty is running the bases at — 3B/PA against lefties this year, a solid bat that turns into a triple in about 0% of his trips. And Robbie Ray has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Robbie Ray too — .333 across 6 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (100) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a solid bat at .004 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Kyle Karros (COL) (92) vs LHP Robbie Ray: a solid bat at .004 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (89) vs RHP Brendan Beck: a solid bat at .004 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (89) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a solid bat at .004 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (89) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: a solid bat at .004 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (89) vs RHP Aaron Civale: a solid bat at .004 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (85) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: a solid bat at .004 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Parks where triples happen today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% triple park). Top bat there: Willi Castro (COL) at 100.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 triples matchups landed at least one triple. Top play Willi Castro finished with 0 triples. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these triples matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's triples per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.