Best MLB Walks Matchups — Sunday, July 26, 2026
Top walks spot: Bryce Eldridge
Bryce Eldridge (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP José Soriano. The lefty is working counts at .147 BB/PA against righties this year — and .214 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 13% of his trips. And José Soriano has been fairly stingy with walks against righties lately — .080 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against José Soriano. It all sets up in a park that leans hitter, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (100) vs RHP Will Warren: an excellent bat at .138 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.105).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Erick Fedde: an elite bat at .156 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.077).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (96) vs RHP Will Warren: an excellent bat at .134 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.105), due to bounce back.
- Mike Trout (LAA) (85) vs LHP Carson Whisenhunt: an elite bat at .155 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (81) vs RHP José Soriano: a strong bat at .112 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.080), hitter's park.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (76) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an elite bat at .155 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.167).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (67) vs RHP Ronel Blanco: an elite bat at .158 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.200).
Platoon edges to target
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .147 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .146 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .174 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year.
- Mike Trout (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .216 against lefties this year.
Where walks come easiest today
- Oracle Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Bryce Eldridge (SF) at 100.
- PNC Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) at 46.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Bryce Eldridge finished with 1 walk. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays