Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Thursday, September 24, 2026
Top rbis spot: Lars Nootbaar
Lars Nootbaar (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. The lefty is driving in runs at .107 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .083 over the last two weeks, a league-average bat that turns into a RBI in about 10% of his trips. And Tanner Gordon has been getting lit up by righties lately — .303 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Tanner Gordon. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (94) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .111 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.303), hitter's park.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (91) vs RHP Mason Barnett: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167), hot bat.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (90) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.303), hitter's park.
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) (84) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .129 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.188), hitter's park.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (82) vs LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: an elite bat at .161 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.151), hitter's park.
- Pavin Smith (AZ) (82) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .111 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.303), hitter's park.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (78) vs RHP Brady Singer: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.291).
Platoon edges to target
- Lars Nootbaar (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .107 against righties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .101 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .150 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .120 against righties this year.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .159 against lefties this year.
Best parks to drive in runs today
- Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+18% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Lars Nootbaar (AZ) at 100.
- PNC Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Brandon Lowe (PIT) at 70.
- UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) at 62.
Lineup watch
216 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays