Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Top runs spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jake Irvin. The lefty is scoring at .165 R/PA against righties this year — and .156 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Jake Irvin has been getting lit up by righties lately — .143 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .273 in 11 career PA against Jake Irvin. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a strong bat at .143 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.069).
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (100) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.160), due to bounce back.
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (97) vs LHP Carson Whisenhunt: a league-average bat at .106 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.300).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (94) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .138 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.086).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (94) vs RHP Mason Barnett: a league-average bat at .114 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.292).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (92) vs RHP Mason Barnett: a solid bat at .129 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.292).
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (89) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a solid bat at .129 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.210).
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .139 against righties this year.
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) — righty bat vs LHP, .073 against lefties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .146 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays