Best MLB Walks Matchups — Friday, August 28, 2026
Top walks spot: Lars Nootbaar
Lars Nootbaar (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Blade Tidwell. The lefty is working counts at .137 BB/PA against righties this year — and .074 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a walk in about 10% of his trips. And Blade Tidwell has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .207 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Blade Tidwell, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .122 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.121).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (100) vs RHP Andrew Painter: an excellent bat at .124 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.080).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Drew Anderson: an excellent bat at .126 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.071).
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) (95) vs RHP Dylan Cease: an excellent bat at .120 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.118).
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (93) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: a strong bat at .112 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.207), hot bat.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (90) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: a strong bat at .101 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.207), due to bounce back.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (87) vs LHP Reid Detmers: a strong bat at .103 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Lars Nootbaar (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .137 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .182 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .163 against righties this year.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .141 against righties this year.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .144 against righties this year.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Lars Nootbaar finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays