Best MLB Walks Matchups — Tuesday, September 29, 2026
Top walks spot: Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) tops the board at 100, facing RHP AJ Blubaugh. The lefty is working counts at .156 BB/PA against righties this year — and .056 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a walk in about 11% of his trips. And AJ Blubaugh has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .200 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned AJ Blubaugh too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Michael Busch (CHC) (99) vs RHP Michael King: an excellent bat at .120 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.064).
- Ian Happ (CHC) (98) vs RHP Michael King: an excellent bat at .125 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.064), due to bounce back.
- Roman Anthony (BOS) (91) vs RHP Cam Schlittler: a strong bat at .102 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.143).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (85) vs LHP Chris Sale: a strong bat at .114 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (82) vs LHP Payton Tolle: a solid bat at .096 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.056).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (79) vs RHP Michael King: a solid bat at .093 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.064).
- Braden Montgomery (CWS) (78) vs RHP AJ Blubaugh: a strong bat at .103 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.200).
Platoon edges to target
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .156 against righties this year.
- Michael Busch (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .137 against righties this year.
- Ian Happ (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .145 against righties this year.
- Roman Anthony (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .123 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
72 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays