Best MLB Walks Matchups — Sunday, August 16, 2026
Top walks spot: Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen (KC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. The lefty is working counts at .113 BB/PA against righties this year — and .179 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a walk in about 11% of his trips. And Ryan Johnson has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .238 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Johnson. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Brendan Donovan (SEA) (100) vs RHP Hunter Brown: a league-average bat at .077 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.154).
- Josh Naylor (SEA) (100) vs RHP Hunter Brown: a strong bat at .105 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.154), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (98) vs RHP Bryan Woo: an elite bat at .158 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.036).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (97) vs RHP Dylan Cease: an excellent bat at .131 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.125), due to bounce back.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) (92) vs RHP Hunter Brown: an excellent bat at .120 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.154), due to bounce back.
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) (90) vs RHP Hunter Brown: a league-average bat at .072 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.154).
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) (89) vs LHP Patrick Sandoval: an elite bat at .151 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.171), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .113 against righties this year.
- Brendan Donovan (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .103 against righties this year.
- Josh Naylor (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .091 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .184 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Carter Jensen finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays