Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?

Bryce Harper (PHI) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Thursday, August 6, 2026: Bryce Harper (100), Kyle Schwarber (90), Gleyber Torres (85), Nick Sogard (85), Luis Arraez (84). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .515 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .415 against righties this year. Nick Sogard (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .348 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .401 against righties this year. Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .369 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Miles Mikolas has been getting squared up by righties — .491 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Luis Arraez (PHI). RHP Luis Castillo has been getting squared up by righties — .455 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Sogard (BOS), Wilyer Abreu (BOS), and Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS). RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .408 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Zach Neto (LAA), Vaughn Grissom (LAA), and Mike Trout (LAA). RHP Bailey Ober has been vulnerable to righties — .402 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Carter Jensen (KC), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Bobby Witt Jr. (KC).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a total base.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a total base a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Thursday, August 6, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, August 6, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

12:35 PM ET

LAAaway

BALhomeTop matchup72 12:40 PM ET

ATHaway

CINhomeTop matchup67 1:10 PM ET

NYMaway

CLEhomeTop matchup73 2:10 PM ET

PITaway

MILhomeTop matchup66 2:20 PM ET

TORaway

CHChomeTop matchup53 4:10 PM ET

DETaway

SEAhomeTop matchup85 6:05 PM ET

WSHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100 7:10 PM ET

CWSaway

BOShomeTop matchup85 7:15 PM ET

MIAaway

ATLhomeTop matchup68 7:40 PM ET

MINaway

KChomeTop matchup74 9:40 PM ET

SDaway

AZhomeTop matchup66

PROJ180 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch

Not starting4 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 202 shownScore

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Thursday, August 6, 2026

Bryce Harper (PHI) is the top total bases matchup on the Thursday, August 6, 2026 board at 100, with Kyle Schwarber (PHI) and Gleyber Torres (DET) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. The lefty is racking up bases at .515 TB/PA against righties this year — and .545 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 44% of his trips. And Miles Mikolas has been getting squared up by righties lately — .767 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Miles Mikolas too — .320 across 25 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (90) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a league-average bat at .332 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.767), due to bounce back.
Gleyber Torres (DET) (85) vs RHP Bryce Miller: a solid bat at .412 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.526).
Nick Sogard (BOS) (85) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a league-average bat at .352 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.688).
Luis Arraez (PHI) (84) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a solid bat at .376 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.767).
Dillon Dingler (DET) (84) vs RHP Bryce Miller: a strong bat at .439 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.526), hot bat.
Trea Turner (PHI) (82) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a strong bat at .428 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.450).
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) (81) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a solid bat at .385 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.688).

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Miles Mikolas has been getting squared up by righties — .491 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Luis Arraez (PHI).
RHP Luis Castillo has been getting squared up by righties — .455 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Sogard (BOS), Wilyer Abreu (BOS), and Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS).
RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .408 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Zach Neto (LAA), Vaughn Grissom (LAA), and Mike Trout (LAA).
RHP Bailey Ober has been vulnerable to righties — .402 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Carter Jensen (KC), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Bobby Witt Jr. (KC).

Platoon edges to target

Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .515 against righties this year.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .415 against righties this year.
Nick Sogard (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .348 against righties this year.
Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .401 against righties this year.
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .369 against righties this year.

Lineup watch

180 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?: Bryce Harper (PHI) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Thursday, August 6, 2026: Bryce Harper (100), Kyle Schwarber (90), Gleyber Torres (85), Nick Sogard (85), Luis Arraez (84). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .515 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .415 against righties this year. Nick Sogard (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .348 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .401 against righties this year. Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .369 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Miles Mikolas has been getting squared up by righties — .491 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Luis Arraez (PHI). RHP Luis Castillo has been getting squared up by righties — .455 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Sogard (BOS), Wilyer Abreu (BOS), and Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS). RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .408 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Zach Neto (LAA), Vaughn Grissom (LAA), and Mike Trout (LAA). RHP Bailey Ober has been vulnerable to righties — .402 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Carter Jensen (KC), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Bobby Witt Jr. (KC).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a total base.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a total base a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays