Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Thursday, August 6, 2026
Top total bases spot: Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. The lefty is racking up bases at .510 TB/PA against righties this year — and .500 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 43% of his trips. And Miles Mikolas has been getting squared up by righties lately — .774 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Miles Mikolas too — .320 across 25 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) (100) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a solid bat at .413 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.000).
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (100) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a league-average bat at .369 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.583), hot bat.
- Carter Jensen (KC) (98) vs RHP Bailey Ober: a league-average bat at .366 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.460), due to bounce back.
- Nick Sogard (BOS) (96) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a league-average bat at .339 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.000).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (94) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a solid bat at .376 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.583).
- Gleyber Torres (DET) (93) vs RHP Bryce Miller: a solid bat at .413 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.526).
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (92) vs RHP Bryce Miller: a strong bat at .439 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.526), hot bat.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Miles Mikolas has been getting squared up by righties — .472 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Luis Arraez (PHI).
- RHP Luis Castillo has been getting squared up by righties — .469 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wilyer Abreu (BOS), Nick Sogard (BOS), and Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS).
- RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .416 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Dylan Beavers (BAL), Pete Alonso (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
- RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .408 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Vaughn Grissom (LAA), Mike Trout (LAA), and Zach Neto (LAA).
Platoon edges to target
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .510 against righties this year.
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .382 against righties this year.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .321 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .379 against righties this year.
- Nick Sogard (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .320 against righties this year.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Bryce Harper finished with 3 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.