MLS Match Board — Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Every MLS match on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 239 of 405 on Over 2.5, 167 of 405 on BTTS.

Wednesday, October 14

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge

7:30 PM ET

xG1.6–1.4

MTL

CF MontréalHOME41%1.6xG+143fair+123mkt-3.6%

Draw27%—xG+276fair+304mkt+1.8%

ATL

Atlanta United FCAWAY32%1.4xG+211fair+229mkt+1.8%

O2.5 57% · mkt 59%BTTS 61%1H O1.5 39%

Apple TV

7:30 PM ET

xG1.6–1.2

CLB

Columbus CrewHOME46%1.6xG+119fair+116mkt-0.7%

Draw27%—xG+271fair+300mkt+2.0%

CLT

Charlotte FCAWAY27%1.2xG+265fair+248mkt-1.3%

O2.5 53%BTTS 57%1H O1.5 36%

Apple TV

7:30 PM ET

xG2.1–1.5

D.C. UnitedHOME49%2.1xG+102fair-115mkt-4.0%

Draw23%—xG+337fair+330mkt-0.3%

RBNY

Red Bull New YorkAWAY28%1.5xG+262fair+330mktModel lean+4.4%

O2.5 70%BTTS 69%1H O1.5 48%

Apple TV

7:30 PM ET

xG2.0–1.8

CIN

FC CincinnatiHOME43%2.0xG+135fair+116mkt-3.6%

Draw23%—xG+337fair+342mkt+0.2%

New England RevolutionAWAY34%1.8xG+190fair+223mkt+3.5%

O2.5 73%BTTS 73%1H O1.5 51%

Apple TV

7:30 PM ET

xG2.2–1.4

MIA

Inter Miami CFHOME54%2.2xG-117fair-185mkt-11.0%

Draw22%—xG+349fair+435mkt+3.6%

NYC

New York City FCAWAY24%1.4xG+319fair+513mktModel lean+7.5%

O2.5 69%BTTS 68%1H O1.5 48%

Apple TV

7:30 PM ET

xG1.8–1.5

TOR

Toronto FCHOME43%1.8xG+134fair+148mkt+2.5%

Draw25%—xG+306fair+332mkt+1.5%

ORL

Orlando City SCAWAY33%1.5xG+207fair+175mkt-3.9%

O2.5 65%BTTS 67%1H O1.5 44%

Apple TV

8:30 PM ET

xG1.9–1.6

CHI

Chicago Fire FCHOME42%1.9xG+137fair+176mktModel lean+6.1%

Draw24%—xG+316fair+332mkt+0.9%

PHI

Philadelphia UnionAWAY34%1.6xG+197fair+146mkt-7.0%

O2.5 68%BTTS 69%1H O1.5 47%

Apple TV

8:30 PM ET

xG1.9–1.3

DAL

FC DallasHOME50%1.9xG+101fair-131mkt-6.8%

Draw25%—xG+304fair+351mkt+2.6%

SEA

Seattle Sounders FCAWAY25%1.3xG+294fair+372mktModel lean+4.2%

O2.5 61%BTTS 62%1H O1.5 41%

Apple TV

8:30 PM ET

xG2.3–1.1

NSH

Nashville SCHOME63%2.3xG-170fair-284mkt-10.9%

Draw21%—xG+382fair+544mktModel lean+5.2%

SKC

Sporting Kansas CityAWAY16%1.1xG+516fair+829mktModel lean+5.5%

O2.5 66%BTTS 61%1H O1.5 45%

Apple TV

8:30 PM ET

xG1.8–1.7

STL

St. Louis CITY SCHOME40%1.8xG+153fair+192mktModel lean+5.3%

Draw24%—xG+311fair+303mkt-0.5%

VAN

Vancouver WhitecapsAWAY36%1.7xG+177fair+144mkt-4.9%

O2.5 67%BTTS 68%1H O1.5 46%

Apple TV

9:30 PM ET

xG1.8–1.4

COL

Colorado RapidsHOME47%1.8xG+114fair+116mkt+0.3%

Draw25%—xG+299fair+305mkt+0.3%

MIN

Minnesota United FCAWAY28%1.4xG+254fair+246mkt-0.7%

O2.5 61% · mkt 59%BTTS 63%1H O1.5 42%

Apple TV

9:30 PM ET

xG1.7–1.6

RSL

Real Salt LakeHOME40%1.7xG+148fair-115mkt-13.1%

Draw25%—xG+305fair+340mkt+2.0%

San Jose EarthquakesAWAY35%1.6xG+186fair+319mktModel lean+11.1%

O2.5 65%BTTS 67%1H O1.5 45%

Apple TV

10:30 PM ET

xG1.9–1.7

LA GalaxyHOME42%1.9xG+139fair-102mkt-8.6%

Draw24%—xG+320fair+342mkt+1.2%

POR

Portland TimbersAWAY34%1.7xG+191fair+272mktModel lean+7.4%

O2.5 69%BTTS 70%1H O1.5 48%

Apple TV

10:30 PM ET

xG2.0–1.0

LAFC

LAFCHOME59%2.0xG-146fair-202mkt-7.6%

Draw23%—xG+333fair+427mktModel lean+4.1%

ATX

Austin FCAWAY18%1.0xG+467fair+607mkt+3.5%

O2.5 58%BTTS 56%1H O1.5 40%

Apple TV

10:30 PM ET

xG1.5–1.2

San Diego FCHOME45%1.5xG+125fair+102mkt-4.9%

Draw28%—xG+260fair+314mkt+3.6%

HOU

Houston Dynamo FCAWAY28%1.2xG+261fair+279mkt+1.3%

O2.5 50% · mkt 59%BTTS 55%1H O1.5 34%

Apple TV

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).