Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026
Top runs spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mike Burrows. The lefty is scoring at .206 R/PA against righties this year — and .171 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Mike Burrows has been vulnerable to righties lately — .130 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Mike Burrows, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Andy Pages (LAD) (94) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.205).
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (94) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a strong bat at .144 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.316).
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (93) vs RHP Mike Burrows: a strong bat at .145 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
- Brice Turang (MIL) (89) vs RHP Dustin May: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.571), hot bat.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (88) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.316).
- Trea Turner (PHI) (84) vs LHP Noah Cameron: a strong bat at .136 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.243).
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) (82) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a solid bat at .120 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.379).
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .206 against righties this year.
- Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .130 against lefties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .190 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
144 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.