Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026
Top runs spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mike Burrows. The lefty is scoring at .202 R/PA against righties this year — and .154 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Mike Burrows has been vulnerable to righties lately — .130 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Mike Burrows, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Andy Pages (LAD) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .124 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.205).
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (95) vs RHP Mike Burrows: a strong bat at .147 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (94) vs RHP Dustin May: a strong bat at .134 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.571).
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (89) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a strong bat at .143 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.192).
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) (88) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a solid bat at .119 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.588).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (86) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .121 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Jose Altuve (HOU) (86) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.286).
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .202 against righties this year.
- Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .125 against lefties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .187 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .190 against righties this year.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play James Wood finished with 3 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays