Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026
Top runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Griffin Canning. The lefty is scoring at .167 R/PA against righties this year — and .206 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Griffin Canning has been getting lit up by righties lately — .333 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .182 in 11 career PA against Griffin Canning, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (86) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .140 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.080), hot bat.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (86) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .134 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.103), due to bounce back.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (84) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .118 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.219).
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (78) vs RHP Aaron Civale: a solid bat at .127 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.263), hot bat.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (78) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .135 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.080).
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (78) vs RHP Griffin Canning: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (78) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a strong bat at .145 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.121), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .155 against righties this year.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .189 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .134 against righties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .156 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.