Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026
Top runs spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bubba Chandler. The lefty is scoring at .205 R/PA against righties this year — and .151 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Bubba Chandler has been getting lit up by righties lately — .143 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Bubba Chandler, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (96) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .149 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (85) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .119 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (1.000).
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (81) vs RHP Joe Ryan: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.240).
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (80) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .136 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (80) vs RHP Javier Assad: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
- Andy Pages (LAD) (79) vs LHP JP Sears: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.210).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (77) vs RHP Joe Ryan: a strong bat at .138 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.240).
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .205 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.