Best MLB Walks Matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026
Top walks spot: Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. The lefty is working counts at .087 BB/PA against righties this year — and .172 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a walk in about 11% of his trips. And Tanner Gordon has been tough to walk against righties lately — .000 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tanner Gordon too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (99) vs RHP Eury Pérez: an excellent bat at .141 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.158).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (98) vs RHP the starter: an elite bat at .155 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Kyle Karros (COL) (97) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: a strong bat at .117 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.158), hitter's park.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (96) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a strong bat at .105 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.138), hot bat.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (90) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a league-average bat at .079 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.122).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (86) vs RHP Peter Lambert: a strong bat at .110 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.148).
- James Wood (WSH) (86) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: an excellent bat at .131 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.122), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .087 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .226 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .150 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .048 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.
Where walks come easiest today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% walk park). Top bat there: Rafael Devers (SF) at 100.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.