Best MLB Walks Matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026
Top walks spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bubba Chandler. The lefty is working counts at .184 BB/PA against righties this year — and .200 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 14% of his trips. And Bubba Chandler has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .118 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Bubba Chandler, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (100) vs LHP JP Sears: a strong bat at .101 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.167), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Mason Englert: an elite bat at .162 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (100) vs RHP Eury Pérez: an excellent bat at .133 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.158).
- Kyle Karros (COL) (93) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: a strong bat at .119 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.158), hitter's park.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (92) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .107 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000), hitter's park, hot bat.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (88) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: a strong bat at .111 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.105), hitter's park.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (86) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a strong bat at .110 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.138), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .184 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .183 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .222 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .086 against righties this year.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .106 against righties this year.
Where walks come easiest today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% walk park). Top bat there: Kyle Karros (COL) at 93.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play James Wood finished with 2 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays