Best MLB Walks Matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026
Top walks spot: Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Griffin Canning. The lefty is working counts at .131 BB/PA against righties this year — and .179 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 12% of his trips. And Griffin Canning has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .133 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 12 career PA against Griffin Canning, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (95) vs RHP Griffin Canning: an excellent bat at .125 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.133).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (92) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: an elite bat at .172 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.100).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (86) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .118 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.031), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (79) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: an excellent bat at .135 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.212).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (77) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a strong bat at .119 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.200).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (76) vs RHP Hunter Brown: a league-average bat at .082 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.111).
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (72) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a league-average bat at .074 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.030), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .131 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .182 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .189 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .088 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .226 against righties this year.
Where walks come easiest today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% walk park). Top bat there: Rafael Devers (SF) at 86.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.